Joshua vs Pulev
Joshua should use the early rounds to exploit Pulev's age, the jab will keep Pulev occupied, keep his head moving, and it will take more out of Pulev to take jabs and even to bend the knees and slip, than it will take out of Joshua to throw a fast jab without much power behind it. The jab scores points, but a fast double jab will make it harder for Pulev to land his counter jab, and if Joshua can out jab Pulev, I think he wins the rounds, with Pulev's lack of variety. Pulev will clinch, will probably use jab and grab tactics, but Joshua shouldn't wait for the referee to call a break, he should use his height and strength, push Pulev back, lean on him, and also try to work in the clinches, even if he can't generate much power, land punches if he can, go to the body, it will be hard to land body shots at long range, but even body shots without a lot of power could pay dividends later in the fight.
Pulev shouldn't try to match Joshua for output, he should land the counter jab when the opening is there, feint with the jab, don't let him get into a rhythm of landing the double jab, also feint with the right hand, be wary of the counter left hook, discourage Joshua from throwing that shot, take Joshua's mind away from the right hand with a throw away jab before throwing it. I think Pulev should throw the short right hook to the side of the head in close, and rough Joshua up. Foot speed is a problem for Pulev, he needs to land body shots to slow down Joshua's legs. Pulev has a good right to the body, Joshua's right uppercut is the biggest danger for him, and if he comes in, central, he puts himself in a position to be hit with the right uppercut, but if he comes in, to the right of Joshua, he can land the right to the body, and Joshua can't land the uppercut without adjusting his feet.
Lomachenko vs Lopez
Loma should use his movement, make Lopez need to keep adjusting his feet, work in spurts, the straight left is there for Loma, Lopez is likely to throw the counter right when he sees the first left coming, so he should throw the double left hand. Lomachenko should pivot if he lands the double left hand, like Pacquiao does, that way he isn't moving out of Lopez's punching range in a straight line, or obliging Lopez by standing and trading.
I think Lomachenko should step back in a straight line when he's already outside Lopez's punching range, just a couple of feet, and then step to the side, he shouldn't let his back touch the ropes, and for most of the fight, Lomachenko should use lateral movement, but if he moves back slightly in a straight line, that will encourage Lopez to sprint into range and let his hands go, but Lomachenko is a step ahead if he does that, and Lopez will miss, as long as Lomachenko steps to the side fast enough.
The reason I think Lomachenko should move back a short distance, in a straight line, is because although never going back in a straight line at any point will frustrate Lopez, and it is lower risk, it takes more out of Lopez to move into range and attack, and miss, than to just try to cut off the ring, Lomachenko has to take something out of Lopez, he will to struggle to go to the body, can't push Lopez back, he's the one who can't afford mistakes, will have to be focused all the time, use his reflexes, which is mentally draining, so the more Lomachenko can make Lopez miss, the better.
Lopez should try to catch Lomachenko early, once Lomachenko has found his rhythm, he's never there to be hit, his combinations, variety, are very hard to deal with. Lomachenko is a slow starter, round 1 is often close when Lomachenko fights, it was Campbell's best round, it's often round 4 when he starts to dominate. Lopez has to get the momentum on his side, can't let Lomachenko get into a rhythm, he should go on the offensive in the first round, not for the whole round if he can't get to Lomachenko, just a 10-15 second burst, twice in each of the first 2 rounds.
Lopez shouldn't wait for an opening to land the counter right hand, because it will get harder to find as the fight goes on, he shouldn't back up and try try to attack off the back foot, because Lomachenko is too experienced and intelligent to get drawn onto a counter right hand, and it doesn't force him to work. Lopez should make make use of his size advantage, pressure Lomachenko, feint, make him work, target the body in rounds 3-6, slow down Lomachenko's legs.
Lopez should throw the double left hook, or a hook and uppercut, Lopez stopped Magdaleno with the double left, great finish, it's a good combination for him, he should step to the left and throw those shots, so Lomachenko doesn't see, and so Lomachenko risks moving double impact into Lopez's left if he moves to his right, but Lopez has to keep his right hand up if he does that, because Lomachenko might throw counter left hand from the side, which Lopez might not see coming. Lopez should be patient in the mid rounds, but should let his hands go if Lomachenko is on the ropes or near the corner.
Dorticos vs Briedis
Dorticos has 5 inches of reach on Briedis, he'll never be the best fundamental boxer or be the best at keeping an opponent on the outside with his jab, but he can make better use of his reach advantage than he has in previous fights. If Briedis makes Dorticos fight in the pocket, I think that's bad for Dorticos, because they can both hurt each other, but Briedis can do more damage over the course of the fight, with his volume and variety.
Dorticos doesn't have the ability to control the fight and make it easy just by using his jab, but if he can hit Briedis with the jab often enough that Briedis can't be relentless, it will take more out of Briedis to run into the jab than it will take for Dorticos to land it.
Dorticos's over hand right is his best shot, but he also has a great right uppercut, and I think Briedis will be less prepared for that shot than the over hand, he doesn't need as much distance on the uppercut, so he it will be harder for Briedis to make him over reach with that shot than the straight or over hand. Briedis will be prepared for Dorticos's right hand, which he is reliant on, so he needs to set the shot up, be a step ahead of Briedis. I think Dorticos should use the jab not only to set up the right hand but to take away Briedis's vision, so he doesn't see the follow up right hand coming.
Briedis has to be wary of Dorticos's power, he has to pressure Dorticos, use his output, but he should try to nullify Dorticos's right hand. Briedis should make himself small, bend the knees, and make Dorticos's right hand go over his head. An ugly fight favours Briedis, when there is no daylight between them, and Dorticos doesn't have the room to get his right hand off, because Briedis doesn't need much of a gap, to work the body, and if he is able to smother Dorticos's right hand, he takes a lot away from Dorticos's offence.
Even if Briedis isn't able to land eye catching shots in close, the short shots to the body will take something out of Dorticos. Briedis has to be wary of the right uppercut on the inside, it's unknown if Dorticos can get his uppercut off in close, but that's a danger for Briedis.
Charlo vs Derevyanchenko
Derevyanchenko is a slow starter, was down in round 1 against Golovkin and Jacobs, before giving them both a lot of problems, probably lost the first 3 rounds against Culcay, but he won that fight. Derevyanchenko is likely to start slow in this fight, and if he does, Charlo has to take advantage of that, Charlo isn't a fast starter himself, but he starts faster than Derevyanchenko, and he has to get the momentum early, so it's Derevyanchenko who needs rounds if and when Derevyanchenko comes on strong in the mid rounds, which he usually does.
Charlo should be aggressive in the early rounds, not be too patient and wait for an opening, he should be on the front foot, be prepared to hit Derevyanchenko's guard. I think Charlo should try to walk Derevyanchenko down behind the jab in the early rounds, throw the jab, cross, and the jab, uppercut. I think Charlo should be more economical after a couple of rounds, because if he has a good start, the pressure is on Derevyanchenko. I don't think Charlo should stop coming forward behind the jab at any point in the fight, he should try to keep Derevyanchenko on the back foot, control the range, and land throw the straight right.
Derevyanchenko is good at getting into range and not getting hit on tne way in, he gets low, makes himself a small target, jabs his way in, and moves his head, like Mike Tyson, but if he tries to do that, Charlo should try to time the right uppercut, because that's a great shot, and Derevyanchenko is more of a target for it as he cuts distance, and targets the body.
I think Derevyanchenko's game plan should be similar to Porter's game plan against Garcia. Derevyanchenko has to avoid letting Charlo get the momentum, bad starts cost him against Golovkin and Jacobs, he shouldn't try to push Charlo back in the early rounds, and be in the driving seat himself, but he should try not to let Charlo have as good a start as Jacobs and Golovkin. Derevyanchenko shouldn't change much from the Golovkin fight, he should pivot, throw combinations, attack the body, I think he should be more conservative in the mid rounds against Charlo, Charlo has more flaws than Golovkin, but should be stronger in second half than Golovkin.
Derevyanchenko has to keep his chin down when he gets into range, Charlo isn't a hard target for him, but the right uppercut is a big danger for him. Derevyanchenko should cut the distance and get into range by stepping to his right, jab his way in, and throwing the double jab to the body, I think if he does that, Charlo's right uppercut will be blocked by his shoulder, and Derevyanchenko can still land his own right hand. Derevyanchenko shouldn't try to be the aggressor, and try to back Charlo up, he should use his feet, be defensive, and out work Charlo, but he should be conservative enough what he's able to stop Charlo rallying in the late rounds, and should be economical with his movement.
Charlo vs Rosario
I think the game plans should be similar for both fighters because they have similar weaknesses to exploit, I think both should be patient, both should try to be the counter puncher, and both should try to make the opponent work harder, should try to take the centre of the ring. It's important for both fighters that they don't get reckless if they hurt the opponent, because both will take risks by opening up against a harder puncher than they've fought, even when the opponent is hurt. Both fighters should try to do damage to head and body, but have to careful with body shots, because both fighters are dangerous with counter uppercuts, and by bending the knees to attack the body, both fighters are at risk of getting knocked out by a double impact uppercut. I think Rosario will have slightly more method than Charlo, but I don't think the game plans will be much different to each other, and it will be mostly a case of who the better counter puncher is, which and who's the more durable.
Povetkin vs Whyte II
I think the key for Whyte is awareness, I don't think he should change much based on how well he was doing in the first fight, he should keep it basic, jab and move, throw the right hand behind the jab whenever the shot is there. I don't think Whyte let Povetkin off the hook the after he dropped him the first time. If Whyte finds himself on the ropes, he should always move to the side and get off the ropes, can't opt to stay on the ropes, and he can't back up in a straight line, Povetkin can't negate his lateral movement when he's behind his jab, but Povetkin can position himself to land another great shot if Whyte goes straight back. Whyte can't afford to waste his movement, he has to keep Povetkin in range to be hit with his jab, not move out of his own range and try to move fast, be conservative with his movement, not put much weight behind the jab, but be fast with it, if he can do that for 6 rounds, he'll have more in the tank than Povetkin in the second half.
Povetkin will target the body, will get low, Whyte has to adapt his jab to Povetkin's height, can't afford to over reach and let Povetkin get into range. If Povetkin cuts off the ring and closes the gap in the second half, Whyte should use his strength, lean on Povetkin, smother the right hand, step to his left, throw the left hook to the head and body, and pivot, that's his most damaging combination, the left hook to the head sets up the left hook to the body, and if he's in a position to land the left hook to the body, Povetkin has to reposition his feet to counter, which he's likely too ponderous to do. If Povetkin throws the over hand right, Whyte should be prepared to lean back and land the long counter left hook, transfer the weight from the right to the left leg, and pivot.
I think Povetkin has to take more chances even though he won the first fight, Whyte will be prepared for the left uppercut, Povetkin has to be more varied. Whyte's jab is a problem for Povetkin, Povetkin used his height in the first fight, he's learned how to use being short to his advantage over the years, and if he stays low in this fight, keeps himself a small target, it will be harder for Whyte to control the range with his jab, and if he can make Whyte over reach with his jab, cut the distance just slightly, the right hand to the body is there for Povetkin, but he should slip to his left as he does that, so he isn't moving into Whyte's left hook if he throws it. Povetkin should go to the body more in this fight, because as well using body shots to set up a head shot, he should throw them to slow Whyte down for the later rounds, he doesn't have to put a lot into the shots, he can easily knock a lot out of Whyte with accurate body shots if he's in range to land them.
Povetkin should be prepared to land the counter right hand over Whyte's jab, because if Whyte throws a lazy jab or is slow to bring the left hand back to his chin, that shot is there for Povetkin. I think Povetkin can do more damage at mid range than at long or close range, Whyte's jab is the problem at long range, Whyte is comfortable fighting on the inside, he doesn't need a gap to get his left hook off, and he's bigger than Povetkin. Whyte is relatively one handed, his right hand isn't anywhere near as much of a concern for Povetkin, Povetkin should be on Whyte's right, so Whyte has to reach with the left hook, which will take some of the power out of it. In mid range, Povetkin should throw the right hand to the body, and the over hand right to the chin, he'll turn away from Whyte's hook as he throws the right, and the shot itself is in the way, but I think the right uppercut is a mistake, Whyte is a known target for the uppercut, but it gives Whyte an easier opening than a right hand, Povetkin is too experienced to throw the shot from long range, but Whyte should be wary of the uppercut this time, should see the opening.
Davis vs Santa Cruz
Davis is a very heavy favourite to beat Santa Cruz, but to be as dominant as possible, he can't let Santa Cruz land body shots, and has to make the first half take a lot more out of Santa Cruz than him. I think Davis should be conservative with his own shots in the early rounds, should have a low output, should let Santa Cruz throw more shots, he'll be able to knock Santa Cruz back easily even if he doesn't hurt him, he should go to the body and head, throw a single shot whenever Santa Cruz stops throwing or throws a single shot himself, I don't think Davis needs to engage when Santa Cruz throws clusters of punches. I think Davis should stay on the outside in the first half of the fight, because if he lands a clean shot whenever Santa Cruz isn't letting his hands go, Santa Cruz is likely to throw a lot of shots just to keep Davis off, which Davis should be able to slip most of, and that will take more out of Santa Cruz than Davis, it will be hard for Santa Cruz to attack the body if Davis stays on the outside.
Davis is a great counter puncher, and he should use that whenever Santa Cruz jumps into range, because if Santa Cruz tries to cut the distance, and Davis times a double impact counter, he could knock Santa Cruz out cold. In the early rounds, I don't think low volume will be an issue for Davis, as long as he's able to land a few clean shots to the head and body in every round, and forcing Santa Cruz onto his back foot. If Davis is able to use his size and power advantage by making Santa Cruz work harder than him in the first half, he should throw more combinations in the second half, break Santa Cruz down, by increasing his output, round after round, and if he can do that, he has a good chance of stopping Santa Cruz.
Winning is a big ask for Santa Cruz, but the best chance he has of winning is attacking the body throughout the fight, and also by taking advantage of being the better athlete. The worst thing Santa Cruz can do is go for power, he has to out work Davis, but be conservative enough that his output is still high in the late rounds, he shouldn't throw 100 punches a round, because Davis moves his head, pivots, and he's likely to miss almost all of that he throws, but if Santa Cruz throws single shots, he'll get countered, so he should throw 3 and 4 punch combinations, shouldn't put much into the shots, but if he's throwing shots consistently, never has inactive spells, Davis will have to keep his head moving, will have to keep thinking, and the more varied Santa Cruz is with his shots, the harder it will be for Davis to get into a rhythm of slipping all his shots.
Santa Cruz has to land body shots in every round, it's the tactic which is potentially the most effective, but it's high risk, he has to be careful, keep his chin down, not drop his guard until he's in range to attack the body. I think if Santa Cruz is on the inside, he's at as much risk as if he gets into a gunslinger with Davis at long range, because Davis is dangerous on the inside and outside, but at close range, Santa Cruz can land body shots, Davis's counter uppercut or body shots of his own are a danger for Santa Cruz, but Santa Cruz is likely the far more experienced inside fighter, as the far more experienced professional, so if he can smother Davis's shots, close the gap, he should be able to chop away at the body, and if he does that, he can capitalise on Davis being at least slightly weight drained, which he is highly likely to be. If Santa Cruz hurts Davis to the body, he should apply consistent, educated pressure, be wary of punching himself out and Davis recovering, but not look for one great shot, or settle for his success, he should keep throwing body shots, but not neglect head shots, and be varied. If Santa Cruz does significant damage to the body in the first half, and hasn't let Davis win rounds without working hard, he can come on strong in the second half.
Usyk vs Chisora
I think Usyk should be cautious in the early rounds, use the ring, the right hook is the best shot he can throw, Chisora is more dangerous with the right hand than the left hook, and he can land that shot as he pivots. I think Usyk should step to his right as he throws a power shot, because he is out of position to take Chisora's over hand right. Usyk should be defensive and mobile, but I think he should be in Chisora's range more often than not, it will be easier for him to land enough shots to knick a round, if he doesn't back up, it will take more out of Chisora, because he is likely to throw more shots Usyk can avoid, and it will stop Chisora winning rounds without working hard. Usyk's footwork is important, he should keep using pivots off the ropes, that will make Chisora need to keep respositong his feet, and even stepping in and out of range as he throws combinations on the back foot. Usyk should pick his work rate up in every round, as Chisora tires, and walks into more shots, because although Usyk would be wise to have a cautious start, he has to start throwing in round 4 at the latest.
The worst thing Chisora can do is load up and put a lot into his shots, he's unlikely to catch Usyk and hurt him early because of Usyk's awareness. Chisora has to take advantage of his size, keep Usyk moving, make the early rounds take more out of Usyk than him. Chisora should try to rough Usyk up on the inside, not look throw a big shot as soon as he's in range, but close the gap, make it an ugly fight, use his size to smother Usyk's shots. Chisora should throw more body shots than head shots in the early rounds, because the mobility of Usyk might be Chisora's biggest problem, so Chisora should try to slow his legs down. Chisora should have a fairly high output, he can be economical by not putting much into his shots, but if he's active, he keeps Usyk on the defensive, makes it harder for him to get into a rhythm.
Dubois vs Joyce
Dubois shouldn't rush in, go for an early finish, and he shouldn't back up, try to walk Joyce onto something, because Joyce is at his best on the front foot, and his combinations make him hard to counter. Dubois should try to claim the centre of the ring, throw the jab to head and body, try to establish the right hand early, but don't lead with that shot unless there's an easy opening. Dubois should take advantage of the difference in foot speed, move in and out of range, jab and pivot, make Joyce have to keep adjusting his feet. Dubois is unlikely to stay off the ropes for the whole fight, but when Joyce has him on the ropes, he shouldn't try to push down or out hustle the stronger fighter, but he can't afford to let Joyce work at his own pace on the inside, can't wait for Joyce to punch himself out, he can't let Joyce control the pace, he should keep moving, attack the body, he might not be able to get outside Joyce's reach, Joyce might be able to keep him on the ropes, he might not be able to get his jab off, but he can create the distance to land the left to the body, even if he's made to fight Joyce's fight, he can still take something out of Joyce.
Joyce should try to get the momentum in the first round, try to make Dubois feel the power, put Dubois on the back foot, try to use the double right hand to negate Dubois's jab, Joyce should try to cut off the ring in the early rounds, keep Dubois moving, but he can't afford to wait until Dubois has slowed, and not throw shots until he can unload on the inside, he should throw his own jab, sweeping right hand, let the shots go as soon as he's in range, so Dubois has to throw more shots, and throw shots under pressure, to try win the rounds, the jab to the body is a great shot for him, that will knock steam out of Dubois, slow his legs down. Joyce should try to keep his output up, put less into his shots than he normally does, so he can use his volume to win the early rounds, and be less tired than against Jennings, because if he's gassed, Dubois can get the distance back, and win the late rounds on his jab, Joyce should use his size, not look for a great shot, but try to do what Bellew did against Cleverly, lean on Dubois, drain him, throw short shots to the temple and the over hand right. Joyce should keep his output as high as he can in the late rounds, even if Dubois is able to get off the ropes, he won't need as much power to do damage if he still has volume, and Dubois is less likely to win the late rounds with his jab.
I don't know why Joyce doesn't use his reach as he's backing out, Dubois might be the biggest puncher he's faced, so that's a danger for Joyce, he won't take many backward steps in the fight, but when he does, he should throw a jab or left hook as Dubois throws the right, it doesn't have to be a great counter, but he shouldn't let Dubois land the right hand with nothing coming back at him.
Spence vs Garcia
The worst thing Spence can do is fight Garcia at mid range, that's when Garcia is most dangerous, and I think if Spence opens up and fights in the pocket, he'll come off a lot worse. Spence has to use his fundamentals in the early rounds, get the early points so it's Garcia who has to take risks later in the fight, he has to use his reach, be first with the jab, but whenever Garcia can cut the distance, has to use his faster feet, step back, pull away as the shots come, he can't lunge in, every left hand he throws should be behind the jab. Spence can't out box Danny as comfortably as he out boxed Mikey, he can't do the same thing for 12 rounds like in that fight, Danny is stronger than Mikey, can apply more pressure, and Spence has to change his tactics when his legs have slowed down and Garcia is able to cut the distance. Spence should use his strength in the late rounds, he's a good natural weight class bigger than Garcia, he should use the shoulder, clinch, lean on Garcia, that will stop Garcia from getting his own shots off, Spence should still be able to get good, short shots off in close, that will take more out of Garcia.
Garcia has to make Spence work in the early rounds, make him feel the power in the first round, be busy with his feet so Spence has to stay on the move, I think Garcia should step to his left, Spence will be prepared for Garcia's left hook, Garcia should try to position himself to land that shot, he doesn't have fast feet, but if he keeps using his footwork to set up his shots, he keeps Spence moving, doesn't allow him to box comfortably. The left hook to the body is a great shot for Garcia, he can take a toll on Spence even if the shot is blocked, but if he lands the shot clean, he can do a lot of damage. Garcia has to be wary of Spence's left uppercut when he throws his own left, it was the shot that dropped Porter, it comes from an awkward angle, is hard to see coming, is accurate, and it could be a double impact shot if Garcia is throwing a left hook, Garcia has a granite chin, he can afford to take shots from Spence, but not shots he doesn't see coming, he has to be aware as he cuts the distance. A priority for Garcia should be to slip Spence's jab, because if Spence leads with the left hand, Garcia can time the counter right, and if Spence isn't able to keep Garcia at long range with the jab, Garcia can land his lead left hook, he can't out jab Spence, but if he can neutralise Spence's jab, and make it a battle of power shots, he takes a lot away from Spence's game plan.
Garcia vs Campbell
Garcia should make Campbell feel the power early, put him on the defensive, be prepared to hit the guard, but he has to be conservative with his work rate, should start the fight on the offensive, drop his output in rounds 3-6, from what it was if he starts fast, but keep pressuring Campbell, use the jab to keep Campbell's occupied mentally, let his hands go whenever Campbell is static. Garcia's best chance of getting a KO is stepping back and letting Campbell walk into a double impact shot, Campbell will be prepared for him to come forward and be aggressive, Campbell will have a solid guard, won't give him a lot of openings. Garcia can't head hunt, because body shots are what will slow Campbell's feet down, stop him using his movement, Campbell will throw accurate combinations, win rounds for as long as he can move around the ring, but Garcia hits harder, Campbell has a weak chin, so the pocket favours Garcia. Garcia can't get the better of a stand off, he'll struggle to counter as Campbell attacks off the back foot, he should be first, and try to walk Campbell down, so Campbell can't stick and move.
Campbell can't let Garcia have the momentum in the early rounds, can't have the mentality of an amateur, rely on point scoring, he has to make the early rounds take as much if not more out of Garcia than him, he shouldn't try to back Garcia up, he can catch Garcia as he comes in, Campbell has great shot selection, is unpredictable with his shots, he can win the rounds and break Garcia down by landing clean shots off the back foot, but he can't afford to start slowly, can't make Garcia miss without making him pay, and let him win rounds by default. Campbell should throw a combination almost every time he throws a power shot, so it's harder for Garcia to set him up and land a counter, and he should be varied with his attacks, even if one shot is landing better than any other, and he has to attack the body, so Garcia can't come forward as fast. Campbell's movement is very important, he needs to be mobile for 12 rounds, he can't afford to waste anything, should wait for Garcia to throw or at least move into range himself before he moves away, he needs clean shots more than Garcia, because Garcia will be the aggressor, he should use his jab to score the points, and to stop Garcia controlling the pace.
Smith vs Canelo
Smith should stop Canelo cutting distance and attacking the body, keep Canelo mentally busy with his jab, feint, vary the jab to the chin and forehead. Smith must stay off the ropes, because if Canelo gets inside his jab, he can get the range back by stepping back and landing the right hand if he can time it, but he can't do that on the ropes, and it's very hard to get off the ropes against Canelo. Smith must use his size, can't let Canelo push him on the back foot, Canelo is great at cutting off the ring, his defence is great, but he isn't comfortable on the back foot, Smith can stop him implementing his game plan by pushing him back. Smith landed the right uppercut to the body from long range against Ryder, unorthodox, especially against a short opponent, but that can be effective if he isn't there to be countered, keeps the left hand up to block a potential counter right uppercut from Canelo. Smith can't attack the body nearly as easily as vise verse, but he should go to the body if he can, because if he can slow Canelo down, make him relent, or even make him get into range more slowly, he stops Canelo consistently attacking the body, and has an extra split second get his own shots at long range if he can land before Canelo is coming in. Body shots are far more concerning for Smith than head shots, Canelo will land the hard over hand right to the jaw if Smith abandons his head defence, but he should have a lower guard than usual.
Canelo needs a very different game plan to the Kovalev fight, Smith is a lot more durable, and he takes body shots better, but he's an easier target for body shots. Smith can use his size in the late rounds, that could be the difference if the fight is still in the balance, but even if Canelo out boxes Smith on the back foot for 8 rounds, wins, he's unlikely to finish stronger, because Smith will keep throwing his jab, Canelo will have to move in and out of range, won't be able to attack the body as easily, so he won't have taken enough out of Smith to negate his sizd advantage. Canelo has to pressure Smith and attack the body consistently, be more positive than against Kovalev, because Smith doesn't hit as hard or dictate range as well, but has far better stamina. Canelo should try to put Smith on the ropes, Smith struggled to fight off the ropes against Ryder, Canelo did a great job of stopping Fielding from getting off the ropes, and if he can do that against Smith, it's his fight to lose.
It's important for both fighters to be the on the front foot, Smith can't afford to give up his reach, should try to bully Canelo onto the defensive with a hard jab like Golovkin did the first time, Canelo has to get inside Smith's reach, he can slip the jab, but he can't win the fight outside Smith's range, and he has to be wary of Smith's ability to land a power shot as he comes in.
Leo vs Fulton
Leo will struggle to force the force the fight on the inside and close the gap in the early rounds, but it's important for him to be on the front foot, he doesn't have a reach advantage, so he can't do what Santa Cruz did against Frampton, where he kept Frampton at long range by backing him up with his straight shots, but if he can negate Fulton's jab, neutralise the fight at long range, Fulton has to fight Leo's fight, and the right to the body is a great shot for Leo, it can slow Fulton down, and he doesn't have to cut much distance to land it. Leo has to take advantage whenever Fulton is near the ropes, if he can move to his right as he comes in, get low, the right to the body is there, it negates Fulton's pivot, and Leo is out of position to take the jab.
Leo should be to the left of Fulton for most of the fight, because as well as being out of position to be hit with Fulton's jab, Fulton has to lunge with the right hand if Leo is to his left, which takes more out of him and takes away his balance. I think Leo rushing in and trying to smother Fulton's shots is a mistake, because of Fulton's reactive movement and foot speed, and Fulton throws a sweeping right hand around the guard, lands it at an awkward angle, it's a hard shot to prepare for, but he can afford to be in the pocket if he isn't walking into shots he doesn't see coming. Leo did a lot of damage off the back foot against Juarez, but I don't think that would work against Fulton, Fulton can stay behind his jab, win the rounds without working hard, and if Fulton is at his best, Leo has to be the aggressor to have a shot at winning.
I think Fulton should try to take the momentum away from Leo, rather than using the ring throughout the round, he should use a lot of pivots, but also try to establish his ground, back Leo up with his jab, throw the jab to the head and body, use his speed and reflexes to offset Leo by using feints and throw away shots as bait, try to draw a counter from Leo, and counter himself when the opening is there, if he can do that, that will allow him to be first with his shots, and nullify Leo's aggression. Fulton can't stay on the ropes, that's Leo's fight, Leo will try to trap him, Fulton can stop Leo from swarming him with wide hooks if he uses a pivot rather than a sidestep, but if Leo is to his left, he should step to his right and land the short right hand off the ropes as Leo comes in, Leo has a good chin, but if he walks into a shot he doesn't see coming, Fulton can hurt him.
Fulton can use the 90° pivot to get off the ropes, but he can use the 180° pivot to put Leo on the ropes, he shouldn't stand and trade with Leo, but if Leo is on the ropes, he loses the momentum, and that gives Fulton opportunity to land the left to the body, the 1, 2 to the head, followed by the left hook to the body is the best combination for Fulton. Fulton shouldn't try to push Leo onto the back foot, but let him walk into the jab. If Leo fights like a bulldog, comes in low, Fulton should throw the short uppercut, and pivot.
Attacking the body is important for body fighters, Leo needs to slow down Fulton's movement, and Fulton needs to stop the consistent pressure of Leo, if Leo is able to slow Fulton's legs down by going to the body, he can make it an inside fight for more of the second half, and if Fulton is able to knock a lot out of Leo with body shots in the first half, Leo will have to step back more often, which will allow Fulton to get his shots off and pick Leo off.
Estrada vs Gonzalez II
Estrada can't give Gonzalez the ground to fight his fight, he should throw fast combinations and pivot, keep changing direction, always be light on his feet when Gonzalez is central, but he can't let Gonzalez have the momentum in the early rounds, he should try to hold centre ring briefly, back Gonzalez up just slightly with the jab or straight right to the body, and pivot. Estrada should be assertive in the first 2 rounds, Gonzalez is a slow starter, Estrada has to take advantage of that, but in rounds 3 and 4, Estrada has to be more mobile. Estrada can't stand there and oblige Gonzalez, he should time the right hand over Gonzalez's jab at long range, and move to his right as Gonzalez tries to respond.
Estrada should be economical with his movement, aim to sustain it for 12 rounds, he shouldn't try to move especially fast, he shouldn't waste anything, Gonzalez will struggle to deal with consistent movement because of his much slower feet. The worst thing Estrada can do is stop using his feet, he can't match Gonzalez for output, fighting on the inside or at mid range will favour Gonzalez, and Gonzalez is great at getting into range, Estrada can't make it a stand off, but if he uses his foot speed, is always mobile, it will take more out of Gonzalez to keep Estrada under pressure. Estrada will struggle to stay off the ropes for 3 minutes, with how well Gonzalez cuts off the ring, and when Gonzalez gets into range, the right uppercut is there for Estrada, he should pivot, throw a jab to keep the distance, and step back so Gonzalez can't reset after he's repositioned his feet.
Gonzalez can't let Estrada use the ring without it taking much out of him, he'll take time to cut off the ring, but he can't let Estrada stop moving, he should be conservative with his movement, he can't afford to waste gas in the tank by chasing shadows, he should be first when Estrada is in front of him, throw a fast double jab, right hand, make Estrada move, whether they land or not, and Gonzalez doesn't have to move as much in the early rounds if he's not letting Estrada get into a rhythm, and he nullifies his offence if he does that, Estrada standing and trading favours Gonzalez, but Gonzalez should get off first when Estrada is in front of him, so Estrada doesn't land a fast 2 or 3 punch combination and pivot, and if Estrada doesn't move in response to Gonzalez throwing shots, Gonzalez can let his hands go in volume as he does in most of his fights.
Gonzalez should be more aggressive in rounds 3-6, he can negate Estrada's pivot if he's to Estrada's left, but if he's to his right, that will make it harder for Estrada to telegraph the overhand right, so Gonzalez shouldn't come in, in a straight line. Gonzalez should punch his way in, in the second half, keep closing the gap, not give Estrada any daylight, Estrada can use his speed and movement and long range, is dangerous at mid range. At close range, Gonzalez should keep making lateral adjustments with the feet, so it's hard for Estrada to position the uppercut. If Gonzalez can keep Estrada in front of him, that's his fight, and it takes more out of Estrada. Gonzalez always attacks in high volume and variety, but he should attack the body slightly more than the head, because the more damage he does to the body, the more he'll slow down Estrada's movement, and if he hurts Estrada to the head, Estrada can move around the ring, even on unsteady legs, but if Gonzalez hurts him to the body, he's static.
Berchelt vs Valdez
I think the best combination for Berchelt to throw in the early rounds is the double jab to the head, right hand to the body. The double jab doesn't have to be accurate, but it will offset Valdez as he looks to land a combination. Berchelt has to be patient with the right to the head, Valdez is likely to move as it comes and take power out of it, he'll be an easier target for body shots, he has fast feet, Berchelt should try to attack the body early, that will slow down Valdez's movement, and he doesn't have to cut much distance to land the straight right. Defence is important for Berchelt, Valdez can hurt him, but he can also build an early lead if he can stick and move, land accurate combinations, he'll have to throw more shots and leave more openings if he struggles for accuracy, and missing his combinations will take more out of him than landing them, so Berchelt can do a better job of breaking Valdez down by making him miss.
Berchelt has a big reach advantage, he should use that, he fights more often than he boxes, he's shown the ability to use his reach, but not against an opponent as skilled as Valdez, Berchelt should be busy with his jab, so Valdez has to take risks, can't utilise his speed by moving in and out of range and throwing combinations. Berchelt shouldn't try to be clever, and try to be the counter puncher, because Valdez won't give him openings, will be a small target, will be mobile, Berchelt should make the most of his reach, should be first, that will negate Valdez's combinations.
Speed favours Valdez heavily, he should throw combinations to use his hand speed, use his foot speed when Berchelt tries to cut the distance or let's his hands go, but if he's moving non-stop for 3 minutes a round, expecting Berchelt to swing and miss, Berchelt can let him drain his own legs, the momentum will swing in his favour, he can cut off the ring early, and if Berchelt has more in the tank in the second half, he will walk Valdez down.
Valdez should be busy with his jab, keep Berchelt occupied, stop him from taking the momentum, back Berchelt up just slightly, throw a combination, and move off to the side, but he should move as Berchelt comes forward, so Berchelt has to move as much as him, and he doesn't waste any movement, but Valdez has to utilize his footwork, because Berchelt is a great inside fighter, and if Valdez's movement has slowed down in the second half, Berchelt is able to make it more of an inside fight, he won't be able to use the ring as much, he should keep taking small steps to the side, use pivots, he can't afford to oblige Berchelt, because Berchelt can do a lot of damage, he should keep a throwing combination and moving off, that will force Berchelt to readjust his feet, and Valdez will evade his shots as he moves away from the pocket.
Parker vs Fa
Parker should be busy and fast with his jab, I don't think he should use feints, because cutting distance is important for him, but he should jab his way in, should come in on the left hand side of Fa, so he's in a position to slip Fa's jab, and Fa can't pivot, and it means Fa has to reach his right hand. It's important for Parker to keep Fa under pressure, because the more the pace slows Fa's movement down, the easier it will be for Parker to fight him in the pocket in the late rounds. I don't think Parker should throw a lot of power shots when Fa is moving, because Fa has the skill to make him fall short, which takes more out of Parker, but I think Parker should try to unload a flurry in the first or second round, and make Fa feel his power, before Fa has found his rhythm. Cutting off the ring is very important for Parker, and as he does that, he should quicken the feet and use his jab to the head and body, and he should let the power shots go if Fa is on the ropes.
Fa can't give up his reach, he has to get off first, so he lands before Parker is in range. Fa has to change direction, but be economical, step to the side, rather than move fast, and not let Parker force him to use legs more than Parker himself. If Parker walks Fa down, Fa should throw the left hook go the body and pivot, he can't afford to stay in front of Parker. Fa's best chance of hurting Parker is if Parker throws a double jab, and Fa anticipates the right hand, takes a step back at a right angle, and lands a double impact counter right hand. If Fa can get his jab off and Parker is out of range to jab with him, that takes a lot away from Parker's game plan, he shouldn't try to get Parker's respect in the early rounds, because that's Parker's fight, it's important for Parker than Fa is exerting the legs, is always under pressure, so if Fa can neutralise Parker's pressure, Parker can't rely on the second half.
Okolie vs Glowacki
Okolie should try to use his reach in the early rounds, Glowacki is dangerous at mid range, and if he tries to out hustle Glowacki, Glowacki can more easily make an adjustment with his feet, create a small gap, than cut the distance from long range, Okolie not only has a 7 inch reach advantage, he has the faster feet. Okolie should be busy with the jab at long range, offset Glowacki, disrupt his pressure, and pivot as he tries to cut the distance. The pivot can be useful for Okolie in this fight, but Glowacki is likely to try to cut off Okolie's pivot with his front foot, and whether he can do that might depend on the range, because if Glowacki is on the end of Okolie's jab, he will need a wider stance for his right foot to block Okolie's pivot, and that will make him less mobile, so Okolie should jab and pivot rather than pivot with the left hook. Okolie should be prepared for Glowacki to cut some distance as he throws the jab, he can't rely on the first jab to keep the fight at long range, he should try to be fast with the jab, double it, and lean back and use his feet as he brings the hand back, it will take more out of Glowacki especially if Okolie's jab is accurate, because Glowacki has the slower feet, will miss as Okolie maintains the distance. Okolie shouldn't look for an accurate right hand, Glowacki will likely be better prepared for that shot than he usually is, and Okolie can do damage by partially landing his right hand.
Glowacki should be on the front foot, but should be economical, he should try to make Okolie work in the first half, he doesn't have to have a high output if Okolie is draining is own legs with movement, and can't get his shots off. The left uppercut to the head could be Glowacki's best shot in this fight, I haven't seen him that shot particularly often, but Okolie lunges in, looks to hold, and with his height, if Glowacki can adjust his positioning, he could fall onto a double impact uppercut. Glowacki should try to avoid clinches, the clinches favour Okolie, he's stronger, can lean on Glowacki, which is draining, especially if Glowacki resists being pushed down, Glowacki has more variety, is the technically better fighter, so clinching and neutralising favours Okolie. Glowacki should try to jab from low, that will make it harder for Okolie to establish his own jab and use his reach, he can out jab Okolie if Okolie over reaches with his jab, and if he can set up a power shot with his jab, he finds a balance between being out of range to land, and letting Okolie clinch before he can get his shots off. Glowacki should aim to land the upward jab to the head, and the jab to the body, but he'll struggle to sustain an attack a body attack, because Okolie can put his elbows on his back, and stall out the fight, it will be hard for Glowacki to land body shots, but he should try to land the jab to the body, and he should try to keep Okolie on the balls of his feet.
Herring vs Frampton
The best case scenario for Herring is if he can push Frampton on the back foot, and keep him on the end of his jab, that way he uses his strength and reach. Herring wouldn't be unwise to be first, so he doesn't give up any reach, but he has the faster feet, and has the timing to step back and land a hard counter jab as Frampton comes in with a lead shot. I don't think Herring should throw many power shots in the early rounds, Frampton is likely to be a relatively easy target for the jab, Frampton is a good counter puncher, so Herring shouldn't give him any openings, and if he pushes Frampton on the back foot behind the jab, he can take a lot out of Frampton. Frampton will likely have the right hand up, Herring should be patient with the left hand, so he's more likely to land it when Frampton isn't prepared for it. I don't think Herring should throw the left to the body often if at all, because that makes him a target for Frampton's right hand, he might be able to land the shot without getting beat to the punch and timed as he's throwing, but Frampton step forward with the counter right as Herring pulls back. I don't think Herring should change his tactics much as the fight goes on, he should keep Frampton under sustained pressure, keep using the jab, he should be able to walk Frampton down in the second half if he's drained his legs by forcing him to move and knocked ot out of him with the clean jab, and he should find a home for the left hand in the second half, but he should keep the fight at long range if Frampton isn't hurt, because Frampton can't go for broke if he's out of range.
Frampton has to negate Herring's reach to have a shot, he can't let Herring establish his jab, he has to start fast, should be busy with his own jab, vary it to head and body, follow it up with the right and hook, he'll struggle for accuracy if he's on the offensive, but it's important for him that he doesn't let Herring settle down, puts him under pressure. Frampton shouldn't try to telegraph Herring's jab like he does the right hand against the orthodox stance, because Herring's reach is Frampton's biggest problem. Frampton should fight low, keep stepping forward and slipping Herring's jab, so Herring keeps having to reposition his feet. Frampton should throw straight shots to the body, Herring can land the counter left cross or uppercut if Frampton throws the right to the head, but Herring can't get the counter uppercut off unless he steps to his right as Frampton throws the right to the body. The jab to the body is a good shot for Frampton, he should move to his right as he throws it, so Herring doesn't have space for the counter left and has to lunge with the right. Frampton should target the body because Herring telegraphs shots, and if Frampton can slow his legs down, he can cut distance more easily down the stretch. Frampton can't wait for an opportunity and let Herring work, he has to cut the distance, and if he has a better chance of doing that if he jabs his way in.
Parker vs Chisora
If Parker can stop Chisora having the momentum, he takes a lot away from him, but Parker shouldn't try to push Chisora on the back foot for a sustained period, because Chisora is the stronger fighter, and Parker will take more out of himself by trying to over power Chisora. Parker should be prepared to be giving away strength, should use his feet, but he should try to back Chisora up just slightly when he lets his hands go, and if Chisora pins him on the ropes, rather than trying to push him back or fighting off the ropes, he should turn Chisora on the ropes, so he disrupts Chisora's pressure without obliging him, and if he can do that, he should take advantage by stepping back to create distance, and throwing the 1, 2, before Chisora goes back on the offensive. When the fight is at long range, Parker should be first, vary the double and single jab, he should throw the right hand to the body more than to the head, because Chisora's head movement is good, and if Chisora's resistance is still there, Parker can do more damage to the body than the head. Parker should set up combinations with the jab, throw 3-4 shot combinations, focus on variety more than accuracy.
Parker should be conservative, and not throw a lot for the duration of the early rounds, Chisora has a solid guard, is comfortable under pressure, and Parker will take a lot out of himself, so the late rounds won't favour him as heavily, but he works in spurts, and is economical with his movement, Chisora has to work hard himself to make Parker work, can't rely on Parker's own pace for him to tire. Parker should try to move fast or try to get far out of Chisora's range, he can't afford excessive movement, because that won't take much out Chisora, but if he can make small feet adjustments, keep Chisora moving with him, that it will take more out of Chisora, because he has the faster feet. Parker shouldn't try to be the counter puncher, because Chisora puts shots together, and as he tries to counter when Chisora throws, he'll let Chisora cut the distance, that will give him th ground to fight his fight, Parker should lean back and pivot when Chisora gets off first, and when he has the distance back, get off first himself with the jab. Parker has a good right uppercut, that shot is very important for him, Chisora will make himself small on the inside, roll under left hook, smother the right hand, but he's a target for the uppercut, I don't know if Parker can time a double impact uppercut as Chisora dips the knees, but if he can create even a small gap, or time the shot at mid range as Chisora is easing his way in, he can hurt Chisora.
At long range, Parker is more susceptible to the right hand than the left hook, Chisora should throw it more than the left hook. A good set up for Chisora to throw a bait left hook to the body, take Parker's mind off the head, and throw the right hand. Chisora should come in low, come in at angles, so Parker can't get into a rhythm of catching him coming in. Chisora will find openings to the head, but he should throw more body shots than head shots, because Parker's movement is still a problem for him, even considering how much he's improved his ring cutting, and he should try to slow Parker's legs down. Chisora shouldn't start as fast as he did against Usyk, it's not as important for him to stop Parker getting into a rhythm because Parker has more technical flaws than Usyk, but if Chisora tires, that's more of a problem than against Usyk, because Parker hits so much harder. Parker's footwork is good, but nothing like Usyk, Chisora can have more ring generalship just by cutting off the ring against Parker than he could against Usyk.
Parker moves to his left more often than his right, so Chisora can more easily stop the movement of Parker by coming on Parker's left. It's important for Chisora that he's cutting distance before Parker can get off at long range, because Chisora can't out jab Parker, to set up the right hand, he has to get inside Parker's jab. Chisora shouldn't throw the over hand from far out, Parker is likely to avoid it even with his susceptibility to it from long range, but if he's able to step in, and is cutting off the ring, he can set the shot up, and Chisora is hard to deal with when he comes in low, and throwing a hard lead power shot from long range will lift his chin. If Chisora comes in low, it will be hard for Parker to attack the body, and if he cuts Parker off on his left, Parker can't pivot, he will be moving under Chisora's pressure, Chisora will be in a position to attack the body and bring the attack to the head, Chisora is a tough target in the pocket, but Parker's uppercut is a concern for him, he shouldn't let Parker work, he should be consistent with his pressure, not load up with any shots or swarm Parker, but keep making Parker need to reposition his feet, and disallow Parker from getting the uppercut off.
Andrade vs Williams
I think Andrade should try to keep it on the outside, Williams can hurt Andrade, Andrade should be able to out box Williams on the outside as long as he can negate his jab. Andrade should try to back Williams up in the early rounds, throw the straight left to the head and body, but he has to be wary of Williams's counter right hand, can't lunge with the left, and Williams won't come apart every time he's backed up. Andrade should use his positioning to set up a single shot, and use his feet to stop Williams punching with him, Andrade is a good combination puncher, but Williams isn't reliant on counter punching, is prepared to miss and keep throwing, has good variety, so Andrade can win rounds with single shots, if Williams can't deal with his footwork. Andrade shouldn't pick up the tempo if he turns Williams on the ropes or backs him up, because Williams is dangerous off the back foot, but if he can be on the front foot, and disrupt Williams's pressure, he has more control of the tempo.
The more varied Williams is, the better, he should be busy with his jab, but he shoukd throw it to draw reactions from Andrade and set up his power shots rather than as it's own point scorer, because Andrade can pull away from it. Williams has an accurate, well timed right hand, he can set it up behind the jab, but Andrade is likely to be a low target, so I think the right uppercut is a better shot for him. Williams should target the body more than the head, Andrade's deflects from shots, he doesn't have the best blocking abilities, and Andrade's movement is a hig problem for Williams, he can slow Andrade's legs down by going to the body. I think the jab to the body is a better set up for Williams's right hand than the jab to the head, because Andrade's defence isn't compact, he relies on moving away from the shot he sees coming, he'll be more prepared for the jab, right hand to the head, than if Williams can take his mind away from the head with the jab to the body, and come over the top with the right hand.
Nery vs Figueroa
Nery has to use his speed, establish his jab, throw 2 and 3 punch combinations, use his feet, but be conservative with his movement, not exert his legs any more than he has to. Pivots are key for Nery, Figueroa doesn't have the skill at long range to out jab Nery for a sustained period even with his reach advantage, but getting hit as he's backing out Figueroa's punching range is a concern for Nery, and Figueroa throws wide hooks, so he doesn't always have to chase Nery and reset when Nery moves off the side, but if Nery can pivot 90°, that disrupts Figueroa's momentum, stalls his pressure, Nery sets up an opportunity to get a combination off, and Figueroa has to reposition his feet. Nery shouldn't let Figueroa close the gap, try to do damage off the ropes, and wait for Figueroa to stop throwing, because Figueroa doesn't have to punch himself out, and Nery will struggle get his shots off because of Figueroa's relentless pressure, but Nery's offence shouldn't be reliant on the fight being at long range, because Figueroa will keep coming forward. Nery should try to work at mid range, throw a combination as Figueroa is cutting the distance, and move around to the side.
Figueroa can't afford to let Nery get into a rhythm, because if he lets Nery settle, it will be harder for him to force the pace and use his strength. Figueroa shouldn't try to be clever and try to out box Nery on the outside, but if he can get off first, in the early rounds, he'll make Nery work harder, delay his work, and make it hard for Nery to control the pace. Switching stance could be risky for Figueroa at mid or close range, because Nery can time him as he's switching, he should switch as Nery backs up or early in the round, when he isn't in Nery's range, so Nery has to adapt to him coming in at an angle. Figueroa has to be consistent, Nery is likely to defend well, and whenever Figueroa's offence lapses, Nery can create a gap, throw a combination, and make an adjustment with his feet. Figueroa shouldn't put much behind his shots, he should put volume before power, be as varied as he can.
Ramirez vs Taylor
Taylor is likely to try to push Ramirez back, and if Ramirez can stand his ground and push Taylor back, he takes a lot away from Taylor offensively, but I don't think he can, I think Taylor is stronger than Ramirez. Ramirez can fight on the inside, but Taylor can impose his strength and smother Ramirez's shots, I think he's an even better inside fighter than Ramirez, so Ramirez shouldn't let Taylor close the gap. Ramirez shouldn't let Taylor use his reach and sit behind his jab at long range, he should use the double jab to slip inside and throw a combination, which is likely to back Taylor up, but the important time for Ramirez to let his hands go is as Taylor is starting to cut the distance, that's when Ramirez should throw jab combinations, 3-4 shots, and move around to his left.
I think it's important for Taylor to push Ramirez onto the back foot, I don't think he's offensively good enough to have as much success off the back foot against Ramirez as Zepeda and Postol, but he can out fight Ramirez on the inside, which takes a lot away from Ramirez. I think Taylor should make the fight a stand off in the first 4-6 rounds, claim centre ring, be busy with his jab, let Ramirez exert his legs by moving in and out of range, he should be patient with the left hand, especially in the first 2 rounds, before he's found his timing, and in the mid-late rounds, when Ramirez has increased his output, Taylor should look to make it an inside fight, stop Ramirez rallying, he can push him back, and when Ramirez is opening up and throwing power shots, that Taylor can use his footwork and offensive ability to close the gap.
Oubaali vs Donaire
Oubaali has to maximize the use of his speed, that means throwing combinations, and moving off before Donaire can respond. I don't think Oubaali should go 50/50 in a tentative jab battle at long range, Donaire has a hard, purposeful jab, and that can neutralise Oubaali's technical skill at long range, but if he can step in with a fast double jab, he can stop Donaire in his tracks, and set up the left hand, the right hook off the jab is another good comination for him. Oubaali should move at angles, just changing direction can be effective, with the difference in foot speed, but he will have to put more effort into his movement because of Donaire's ability to cut off the ring, whereas if he pivots or moves around to the side, Donaire has to reset. Oubaali can't fight Donaire off the ropes, with Donaire's power and offensive ability, he has to get off the ropes, Donaire is good at keeping a fighter on the ropes, but Oubaali has the footwork to turn Donaire on the ropes, and if he does that, and lets his hands go when Donaire is on the ropes, he disrupts Donaire's momentum.
Donaire should have counter punching in the back of his mind in the early rounds, should try to get off first and back Oubaali up, so he can cut off the ring, keep knocking him back with lead shots at long range, and later in the fight, Oubaali is likely to throw the lead left hand to keep Donaire off, because it's a power shot he can get off at long range, that's when the counter right hand is there for Donaire, because the fatuige aspect will make Oubaali easier to time. Donaire should throw more body shots than head shots in the early rounds, Oubaali's head movement is great, and body shots will be more effective in slowing down his legs. I think Donaire should throw single shots, certainly in the first half of the fight, because Oubaali will be mobile, I think Donaire will struggle to land a clean combination, and if he lands one shot, and doesn't hurt Oubaali, the second and third shot in the combination are likely to fall shirt because of the difference in foot speed, but his timing is important even as he's throwing first, and he can take a lot out of Oubaali by backing him up and forcing him to move.
Leo vs Alameda
Cutting off the ring is important for Leo, he doesn't need to make Alameda stand and fight him, but he has to work his way into range, so he can attack the body to slow Alameda's legs down. Alameda's blocking is great, so Leo should look to throw combinations, he should try to stop Alameda getting into a rhythm, keep him occupied. I think Alameda is susceptible to the over hand right, but he shouldn't look for that shot, he should be varied, attack head and body, especially the body, not put too much into his shots, and put volume before power.
Trying to push Leo back consistently, thinking Leo is reliant on being on the front foot, is a bad mistake for Alameda, Alameda has to be wary of the damage Leo can do off the back foot. Alameda should try to keep the fight at a low tempo by establishing his jab, and using lateral movement consistently, he should throw the jab and move off the side as Leo starts to cut off the ring, so Leo can't impose his tactics.
Barrios vs Davis
Barrios should try to take centre ring and establish his jab, he has a big reach advantage and a good jab, he should take advantage of that. Barrios shouldn't try to be the counter puncher, Davis will offset him with feints, won't give him an opening, and he won't be making Davis work. Barrios should get off first, should throw the double jab more as the early rounds go on. Barrios can't afford to be an easy target after throwing a combination, Davis has the timing to land as Barrios stops throwing, and Barrios is a target if he takes a step back. Barrios should pivot around to his left or even just step to his left, so Davis can't wait for him to stop throwing and land the left hand. Barrios should try to set a high tempo, the late rounds will favour him in terms of pace, and if he lets Davis settle into a rhythm, it will take more out of him to take clean shots. Variety is important for Barrios, Davis is defensively good on the inside, and the more varied Barrios is, the more he takes out of Davis mentally, and the more chance he has of landing a shot in a flurry after missing a few. Davis is likely to get his front foot outside Barrios's, and potentially line up his left hand before Barrios can line up his right hand, but Barrios has a good right uppercut, he shouldn't just look for the right hand against the southpaw, because he can land the right uppercut at an angle if Davis is out of position for the right hand.
Davis he has a good jab, but so does Barrios, Barrios is likely not to give up his reach, and Davis could get out jabbed in the early rounds because of the reach difference, but he can out jab Barrios if he can use his height and get low, and use his front foot, he can out jab Barrios with the jab to the body, and I think that shot is a better set up for the left hand than the jab to the head. If Barrios starts fast, Davis should not push for the centre of the ring, he should back up, because he can take more out of Barrios than himself by making him miss, he should get off first with a combinations off the back foot if Barrios tries to be the counter puncher, and look to counter as Barrios stops throwing if Barrios syops throwing, because Barrios leaves gaps, and Davis can take advantage of him being slow to bring his hands back to his chin. I think mid range is the best distance for Davis to fight Barrios at, that way he's inside Barrios's reach, and Barrios's size is likely to be more of a factor at close range. It's important for Davis that the early rounds take more out of Barrios than him, I think it's more important than him being ahead after 4 rounds, he's the better technical fighter, so he doesn't have to work as hard for success as Barrios, he's likely to do better in the mid rounds as he gets into a rhythm, and he's better prepared for the late rounds if the fight has taken more out of Barrios.
Lubin vs Rosario
If Lubin can back Rosario up, he can take control of the fight, Rosario is versatile when he's coming forward, but is reliant on being on the front foot, Lubin can hurt Rosario by walking him onto a double impact counter as he comes in, he has the skill and timing to do that, but he shouldn't go looking for it, because Rosario's jab is likely to offset him, will struggle to time and position the shot because of Rosario's head movement. Lubin should take centre ring, he shouldn't stand in the pocket against the puncher, but should throw a single power shot, move around to the side without giving up his ground and allowing Rosario onto the front foot. If Lubin can't back Rosario up, he should keep moving around to his right after throwing a lead or counter, should vary the single lead right hook and left hand to the head and body. Lubin can counter Rosario, but he shouldn't wait for the opening for a counter if Rosario is able to pressure him, because Rosario will be busy with the jab, throw flurries as he comes forward, and that will negate Lubin's offence, he should use his speed, step back, get off first before Rosario can cut the distance and pivot.
Rosario needs a different game plan to against Charlo, he doesn't need to make as much of an impression in terms of power as against Charlo, be can afford to let Lubin work more than Charlo, but he can't afford to let Lubin move off the ropes like he did against Charlo. Rosario can't afford to look for accuracy, that will allow Lubin to stick and move, Rosario can't beat Lubin with single power shots, as a lead or a counter, he should be busy with the jab, keep Lubin occupied, be varied with his shots, be prepared to miss 2 shots to land 1. Variety is important for Rosario, because he can't let Lubin get into a rhythm of countering one shot he throws, he has to make Lubin work mentally, and body shots are important for Rosario, because Lubin's foot speed is a big problem for him. I think Rosario should throw mainly to the head as he's cutting the distance, and should throw more body shots when he's on the inside, because Lubin has a good counter uppercut which he times as the opponent is coming in, so Rosario is a potential target for that as he's cutting the distance, he can negate Lubin's counter ability by jabbing his way in, Lubin can get the uppercut off on the inside, but Rosario won't walk into it, and that's his best opportunity to attack the body.
Zepeda vs Tanajara
Zepeda can't let Tanajara get into a rhythm of jabbing and moving, he should attack the body more than the head, not just because of Tanajara's height and guard, but because body shots are more likely to slow Tanajara's legs, he should fight low, so Tanajara will be more likely to over reach, I think the double jab to the head, straight left to the body, is the best combination for Zepeda in the early rounds, because if he can step in with his jab, he's in range for his follow up, Tanajara will look to counter with his own jab, but that will be harder if Zepeda throws a double jab, Tanajara is likely to step back and still throw a jab, but if Zepeda can slip down to his right as he lines up the left hand with his front foot, the left to the body behind the jab is there for him, he can use his shoulder to block the counter right uppercut as he throws the left, and it will be harder for Tanajara to land the counter right than if Zepeda throws the left to the head. I think Tanajara is likely to use more pivots as the fight goes on, as his lateral movement slows down, and the way for Zepeda to negate Tanajara's pivot is to land the right hook to the body, he should jab to the head as he comes in, and hook off the jab, because the jab can take Tanajara's focus away from the body. Zepeda should throw more shots, as he cuts the distance more easily, if Zepeda can bring Tanajara's elbows down by attacking the body for 6-8 rounds, the over hand left to the chin is there for him, and if can he walk Tanajara down in the late rounds, fight him at mid range, he'll be able to use his variety, and once he's forced Tanajara to give up his reach, it's Zepeda's fight.
The jab is Tanajara's best chance to win, he should try to get off first in the early rounds, should try not to let Zepeda cut any distance, and he should throw the double jab, so it's harder for Zepeda to counter, and he scores more points at the distance Zepeda can't land. Tanajara should be economical with his movement, should be mobile, force Zepeda to have to have to adjust his feet, but he shouldn't back out of range to land his own jab, he should make adjustments with his feet, but should move before Zepeda has set himself, so Zepeda isn't dictating his movement and draining his legs by forcing him to move around the ring under pressure. It's important for Tanajara that he doesn't get backed up in the early rounds, because if he's in the middle of the ring, and Zepeda slips his jab, he can still land the right hand if he steps back, but he can't afford to back up to the ropes. Tanajara has good lateral movement, he should definitely use that, and not just move to his left, he should pivot, but if he should move around to his right as well, so it's harder for Zepeda to cut him off, and because he can do a better job of setting up the right hand by stepping to his right. Tanajara can line up his jab by taking a small step to his right, because Zepeda leans to his left when he fights. The pivot is often off a hook, and the left hook, pivot, is a good move for Tanajara, but if he can land the right hand from long range, the weight is already on his left leg, which sets up the pivot, and as long as his jab is in range, the longer the range is, the better it is for Tanajara, because even if he can land his own hook, Zepeda can more easily step in and do damage at mid range.
Charlo vs Castano
I think Charlo's jab is underrated, but I think he'll struggle to jab through Castano's guard, Castano can more easily step in at an angle and attack at mid range than create distance if Charlo has closed the gap, and Charlo can build more momentum off implementing the fight on the inside, than he can build from jabbing Castano onto the back foot. Charlo should try to back Castano up by making him feel the power, and establishing his ability to close the gap. Charlo should try to cut off the ring better than he has in the past, Castano is likely to pivot, before Charlo can back him up for a sustained period, but Charlo just has to hold his ground, and not get backed up himself. I think Charlo should look to throw body shots on the inside the early rounds, because Castano's footwork will be less of an issue if he can slow his legs down, and hooks to the body can more easily get around Castano's guard.
I don't think it's important for Castano to back Charlo up to the ropes, Charlo's movement isn't a problem, Castano can get the momentum by taking centre ring and backing Charlo up just slightly, and if he tries to put Charlo on the ropes, he's at risk of walking into a double impact counter. Castano should definitely throw combinations, because he has the faster hands, and because Charlo is a counter puncher. Castano often uses his height, fights low, and attacks from body to head, but in this fight, I think he should throw more head to body flurries, Charlo has a great counter uppercut, fights well in close, so Castano making himself small might not be a problem for Charlo, but Charlo doesn't react defensively to head shots as they come, Castano can bring Charlo's focus away from the body by starting the combination to the head, and that allows him to attack the body, he should head to body at mid range, and move around to the side, so Charlo can't close the gap.
Fury vs Wilder III
I think Fury should go back to boxing like he did in the first fight, he obviously did better in the rematch, but I think his own ring rust was the main reason the first fight was competitive, and Wilder didn't expect Fury to be on the front foot in the rematch, but thinking Wilder is beaten as soon as he's backed up, is very dangerous for Fury, Wilder has proven in a few fights that he's dangerous off the back foot, especially in the first Ortiz fight, he is explosive, has the potential to time a great shot, he'll be ready for Fury to come forward this time. Fury has great movement and outside boxing ability, Wilder has poor footwork, doesn't move his head, he is not a good pressure fighter. I think Fury should establish his jab as early as he can, prioritise controlling the distance, he should lead with his jab when Wilder doesn't throw, but should defend and let Wilder waste shots when Wilder is on the attack, Wilder can't bully Fury and win default rounds without landing, because Fury's footwork is so much better, and the more Wilder throws, the more he'll take out of himself, because Fury's defence is so good.
The harder Wilder can challenge Fury mentally, the more of a chance he has, he shouldn't try to out box Fury, but if he's just waiting to detonate the right hand, even if his patience and timing is good, he'll have no success against Fury, he has to set it up, he shouldn't rely on executing one spectacular shot, but he should aim to keep taking Fury's mind momentarily off the right hand, and offset him. Wilder's aim should be to keep making Fury react without Fury getting good shots off, he should use feints, be busy with his jab, and try the jab to the body, he isn't a good body puncher, it's hard to alter a fighter's style this late in a career, but with his power, he doesn't need many body shots or power shots to the body, to knock it out of Fury, Fury's height makes him less hard to hit to the body, he takes a lot away from Fury if he slows down his legs, and if Wilder can land vary his jab from head to body, he can make Fury work harder mentally.
Ugas vs Pacquiao
Ugas has to take advantage of Pacquiao's ring rust, he can't let Pacquiao settle down and improve his timing in the first few rounds, he should take centre ring, vary the jab to head and body, and be patient with the right hand, so he doesn't give Pacquiao many openings. Ugas should look to counter at long range, being out worked isn't an issue for him with Pacquiao's lowered output, and he can win rounds by picking Pacquiao off with his jab on the outside, but Ugas should get off first on the inside, because Pacquiao still has good hand speed and great footwork, Pacquiao cutting the distance, landing a combination, and getting adjusting his feet with a pivot, is a problem for Ugas, he has to let his hands go before Pacquiao can work, so Pacquiao has to go back to trying to set a trap from long range. Pacing is important for Ugas, he should try to take full advantage of Pacquiao's age, not let him have a second of respite, and be economical with his own gas tank. If Pacquiao punches himself out, needs time to recover, and backs up, Ugas can take advantage by jabbing to the head and body, that won't take much out of him, it will knock a lot out of Pacquiao, and Pacquiao isn't in range to land a counter.
I think the straight left hand is the best shot for Pacquiao, Ugas pulls away from shots, which is a big problem for Pacquiao, with his reach disadvantage and decreasing speed, so he needs to get as much distance on his shots as possible. The double left is a great tactic for Pacquiao, he can step in with the first even if it falls short, put Ugas momentarily on the defensive, and follow it up with an accurate second shot, but he has to make the right adjustment with his feet, cut the distance without being in a position to be caught coming in, he can't do that just by throwing the shot from low, because Ugas can land the counter uppercut, but if he can slip to his right or step to his left as he's throwing the first shot, he can nullify Ugas's counter with the second shot. Pacquiao can't afford to let Ugas off the hook if he hurts him, but if he punches himself out, his slow recovery will cost him all the momentum from hurting Ugas, he can't afford to miss in the follow up, should put speed before power, and if Ugas's legs are unsteady, he can walk him down, cut the distance, and land accurate body shots, which don't have to be the hardest or fastest shots to stop Ugas's movement.
Lara vs Warrington II
If Warrington is shot, he will be easy for Lara to time, and won't hold up when Lara lands clean, and if that's the case, Lara has already set up a win in this fight, but if Warrington is still the same, he is a threat, and Lara has to be prepared not only for Warrington to make adjustments. Last time, Warrington wasn't for ready for Lara to hit so hard, wasn't pacing his movement, was either in front of Lara, or uncomfortable on the back foot, not taking anything out of Lara, and draining his legs, he wasn't consistent with his offence, and Lara didn't have to strategically break him down, but he might have to this time. Lara did a lot of damage to the body last time, but he attacked the head a lot more than the body, he should attack the body consistently in this fight, especially if Warrington has a higher guard and moves his head more than last time, which I think will, the straight right to the body was a great shot for Lara last time, and Warrington is likely to have focused more on preparing for the left hook to the head, because that's the shot Lara landed the most, so I think the right to the body is there for Lara.
Lara shouldn't push for an early finish, but he can't let Warrington settle into a rhythm of throwing clean combinations, defending, and being a step ahead with the feet. Lara can take Warrington's power to the head, but Lara has to be wary of body shots from Warrington. Warrington is not a good boxer or fighter on the back foot, Lara can tee off as he pushes Warrington back, and when Warrington isn't backing up, the counter right hand is there for Lara at long range, but if Lara backs up himself, and lets Warrington close the gap, Warrington is likely to adjust his feet before Lara can respond, and Warrington can attack the body if can cut the distance on the front foot. Lara shouldn't try to out box Warrington, but feints and throw away shots at long range are a good tactic as Warrington tries to set himself, Lara doesn't have to react to Warrington's feints, but Warrington has to react to everything Lara does because of how dangerous he is. Lara should let his hands go as he starts to back Warrington up, offset Warrington at long range, be ready to counter Warrington whenever he can find the opening and time him.
Pacing is important for Warrington, he has to use his feet, but he has to be conservative with his movement, he can't afford to drain his legs, because if he's in front of Lara, that's likely to cost him the fight, but Lara's footwork is poor, Warrington should look to consistently make adjustments with his feet, make Lara have to reset, and stop him keeping him under pressure. Warrington can hurt Lara to the body, but first and foremost, he should try to dictate the tempo and win the rounds with accuracy and activity, he has a top level output, but he should throw more jabs than usual, and fewer power shots.
The fundamentals are important for Warrington, he should be busy with the double jab, keep making small movements with his head, be ready to slip or roll under Lara's shots at long range. Warrington should vary the jab to the head and body, the jab to the body can knock a lot out of Lara, he should look to be fast and accurate with the jab, and prioritise wining rounds. Warrington should throw more power shots in the mid rounds, when he's established his jab, than in the early rounds, and he can set up his shots without getting countered, he can hurt Lara to the body, he can't stand and trade with Lara, but if he throws single shots, it will be easier for Lara to counter him. Warrington should throw 3-4 punch combinations, and adjust his feet. Warrington should jab his way in as he cuts the distance, follow it up with 1 or 2 power shots, step to the side, and keep busy with his jab when Lara resets. Warrington's jab is very important because it scores points, but also because it can neutralise Lara, and it sets up Warrington's power shots, which is very important, because leading with hooks was costly for Warrington last time.
Joshua vs Usyk
Usyk will be very prepared for Joshua's right hand, even if Joshua lines the shot up with his jab, because Usyk is so skilled, Joshua's instinct will be to keep following up the jab with the right hand, but Usyk can let it slip over his head and bounce off his gloves, so Joshua has be patient with the right hand, and keep working behind the jab, to use his reach, and also to knock it out of Usyk physically and to keep Usyk occupied mentally and make it hard for him to use his ring IQ. The right to the body behind the jab to the head is a great shot for Joshua in the first half, and the time to throw it is as he's cutting the ring off, so it's harder for Usyk to use his feet to set up a counter as Joshua lowers with the shot, the right to the body should be easier for Joshua to land than to the head because Usyk will be more focused on the right hand to the head, he's likely to inch the left glove up when Joshua throws the jab, to block a potential follow up to the head. Usyk will be hard for Joshua to set up, won't take bait, and to set Usyk up, Joshua has to position his shots as well as draw reactions from Usyk, adjust his feet, shift his position, and create openings. Joshua has to consistently make Usyk work hard, he can't wait for Usyk to attack and let Usyk rest, he can use his size by using his reach, and can mentally pressure him with the threat of his power if he's consistent with a strategic jab that makes Usyk react, but I think Joshua will take more out of himself if he tries to swarm Usyk like Chisora did, it's a tactic that could work, it would make it hard for Usyk to settle into a rhythm, he would have more of a chance of hurting Usyk early than Chisora, and can afford to put more into the early rounds than Chisora, but I think Usyk is likely to move off, defend well, and would take advantage if Joshua punched himself out, Joshua will give up some ring generalship if he has to ease off.
Usyk can out box Joshua if he stops him getting his jab off, and that should be his aim, he shouldn't rely on slipping and blocking the jab, because Joshua's jab is hard to block, and even it isn't landing, Usyk will struggle to cut the distance because Joshua's jab is busy and varied, Usyk is likely to be backed up, and he won't be in range if Joshua is getting his jab off. Usyk should maximise the use of his footwork, shift his position before Joshua can set himself and before Joshua can get his jab off first, that can create angles for Usyk and set up openings. Usyk, with his strength and power disadvantage, shouldn't stand in front of Joshua, and pivots and sidesteps are key for Usyk's escape from the pocket, because if he's moving in straight lines, Joshua timing him is a danger. I think Usyk's best combination against Joshua is the double jab to the head, left to the body, right hook to the body, the double jab to the head allows him to step in without being caught coming forward, the jab can not only set up his left hand, but take Joshua's mind away from the body, and he can pivot off the right hook to the body. Usyk should try to work his way into range, throw a combination, and move off to the side, he can't stand in the pocket against Joshua even if he does damage to the body, and even if he has a lot of success with a specific shot, early in the fight, he's likely to get countered if he throws single shots, he has to throw combinations and adjust his feet.
Herring vs Stevenson
Herring should prioritise the use of his size and reach, he has to back Stevenson up, and the way to do that is to lead with his longer jab and take centre ring. Herring has to be busy and consistent with his jab, it doesn't have to be the fastest or the most accurate, but it should be a hard jab that forces Stevenson to back up, but it's important for Herring that Stevenson doesn't step inside his reach, and the more he varies the shot, the harder it will be more Stevenson to adapt to it, Herring should mix up the jab to the head and body, so it's hard for Stevenson to prepare for the jab and counter it. Herring will struggle to land the left hand, the time to throw it is when he is cutting off the ring and Stevenson is backing up, Stevenson will use every form of defence, the speed difference will be a challenge for Herring, when there's not much difference, in terms of timing shots, Herring can set up the left hand by stepping to his left, but if he does that, he gives Stevenson an escape, he should use his front foot to cut Stevenson off, and lean to his left to set up the left before Stevenson can get off the ropes. When Stevenson is on the ropes, is when Herring should let his power shots go, he should be varied, that will keep Stevenson's mind working defensively, but he has to lead every series with the jab, keep Stevenson at arm's length, so Stevenson is under pressure, on the defensive, and not in a position to counter.
Stevenson should throw combinations throughout, to utilise his speed, and to work his way in, he has to start fast, challenge Herring mentally with his speed and variety, and back him up. Mid range is where Stevenson should be, Herring's reach could be a problem for him on the outside, and at close range, Herring has more of an opportunity to utilise his size. Stevenson shouldn't force his movement, he has the faster feet, and he can utilise that by staying mobile, making adjustments with his feet, and giving himself more opportunity to work than Herring, so Herring has to force his own movement to position his shots. Size can be the difference in a 50/50 fight, if Stevenson allows Herring to utilise his size, that could be costly, Stevenson can't overpower Herring, but he should try to take centre ring and neutralise Herring's strength with his lateral movement and hand speed, he can't afford to wait for a counter, Herring is likely to step back if Stevenson throws a fast combination. Stevenson try not to step back, but step to and move around to either side, try to stay in the middle of the ring, so he utilises his speed without allowing Herring to use his size. Another reason Stevenson has to stay mobile and keep moving laterally is because if he stands on the inside, he's a target for Herring's uppercut, getting low and making himself a small target isn't the best tactic against Herring because Herring is dangerous and capable on the inside, and isn't reliant on his reach.
Crawford vs Porter
Porter can build momentum off making Crawford uncomfortable in the early rounds, he has more strength and speed than Crawford is used to dealing with, and can be relentless, Crawford will struggle to time Porter in the early rounds, because he cuts distance so quickly, and jabs his way in, and Crawford will struggle to establish his jab before Porter attacks, because Porter's feet are so fast and he fights low. I think if Crawford tries to stop Porter cutting the distance, that's a bad tactic, because he'll get backed up, won't get his shots off, and Porter can dictate the tempo. Crawford has the ability to defend and attack on the inside, Porter will keep him busy physically and mentally, but if he can stay on ths inside, and keep working off the back foot, he can do more damage than Porter, he hits harder, and is more accurate. Variety is important for Crawford, Porter is varied himself, throws at angles, but that leaves him open to counters at a variety of angles, can be in a position not to see a shot coming, and Crawford should take advantage of that. Trying to over power Porter would be a big mistake for Crawford, he would take more out of himself, smother his work, and he can do a lot of damage off the back foot. If Porter starts the fight on the back foot, and doesn't force a high tempo, Crawford should let him move, Porter is defensively good on the back foot, but not offensively, he can't out box Crawford on the back foot, Crawford doesn't have to walk him down, but he should try to build momentum off Porter giving up his strength even briefly, the straight left to the body is a great shot for Crawford as he's cutting off the ring, Porter's head movement is good, and if he comfortably defends on the back foot, Crawford can't adapt to his attacks, and it takes more out of Crawford, but if Crawford is conservative when Porter isn't throwing, he can steal the rounds, doesn't take much out of himself, and accurate body shots can slow Porter's feet down, which would favour Crawford down the the ground and take a lot away from Porter.
To have a shot, Porter has to maximise the use of his speed and strength, and out work Crawford, trying to out box Crawford is a mistake, and I don't think making Crawford feel the power will deter him psychologically, he can't stand at mid range, he can negate Crawford's counters and stop him getting into a rhythm at long range, by leading with a fast double jab, and at close range, he can over power Crawford and impose his strength, but at mid range, he's an easier target, and he's likely not to be pressing forward, Porter has to work his way in, be first with the jab, and work consistently as he closes the gap, he should come in at an unpredictable angle, and he can't afford to pull back in a straight line. I think Porter should fight Crawford like he fought Thurman, not like he fought Garcia, Crawford is a slow starter, Porter hsas to take advantage of that, none of Crawford's opponents have ever come on after being dominated early, once he settles into a rhythm, it's almost impossible to disrupt. Porter should use his foot spedd by pivoting and attacking, vary the position of his feet as well as his shots, that will make it harder for Crawford to prepare for his shots, and to adapt to his aggression, and it will be harder for Crawford to line up a counter if he has to keep adjusting his feet. Porter should use feints in the early rounds, not to draw a counter attempt out of Crawford and set him up, but to keep him defensive and uncomfortable. If Crawford takes a step back as Porter is attacking at close range, Porter should take a half step to the side or lean to the side as he catches up and closes the gap again, rather than just quickening the feet to keep Crawford in close range, because if Crawford can take a step back and create a small gap, he can time a double impact counter.
Figueroa vs Fulton
Figueroa will struggle to impose his aggression on Fulton, but the worst thing he can do is try to be clever, try to set Fulton up and counter him, and let Fulton judge the distance and pick points without exerting his legs, he has to keep him on the move, but he won't take much out of Fulton if Fulton is consistently using the ring at a comfortable pace, Figueroa has to keep him under pressure, he can't keep Fulton in front of him for 12 rounds or walk him down early, hut he has to cut off the ring well enough that Fulton has to push his movement. Figueroa can't out box Fulton on the outside, but he can use his reach in the early rounds, not to out jab Fulton at long range or beat him to the punch, but to delay him getting into range and establishing his own jab, and to make him uncomfortable. Figueroa has to get off first, and throw combinations, to make some use of his reach, but more importantly to put Fulton on the defensive, he has to be prepared to miss shots to pressure Fulton. At long range, I think Figueroa should throw more head shots, because that will keep Fulton more mentally occupied, and Fulton has a great counter uppercut, can time Figueroa as he reaches, but it's when Figueroa is in close that he has to attack the body, that's when Fulton is in range to be hit, and Fulton has good head upper body movement on the inside. I think work rate and delaying Fulton from settling into a rhythm is key for Figueroa in the early rounds, but he should force the fight and make full use of his strength in the mid rounds, Fulton will adapt to his rugged style and sheer pressure, and have his own success on the inside, but Figueroa should build the pressure and prioritise stopping Fulton settling into a rhythm for as much of the fight as possible, rather than prioritise Fulton being under as much pressure as possible at the start of the fight, because Fulton isn't reliant on a fast start.
Fulton should start the fight by getting off first with jab combinations and stepping around to the side, he should be varied, because Figueroa isn't an especially easy target for a particular shot, he should prioritise speed, he'll struggle to counter if Figueroa comes forward with a high output, and he has to be prepared for Figueroa to take his power. Fulton should be busy against Figueroa, he's unlikely to faze Figueroa mentally with feints and quick reactions, but if he gets off with a fast combination, he can put Figueroa briefly on the defensive, back him just slightly, which will neutralise his strength, and if Fulton stays mobile, keeps making adjustments with his feet, Figueroa can't resume his pressure after taking a step back. Fulton should rely more on body shots for accuracy than head shots, because Figueroa is more of a target for body shots not only because of his height, but because he doesn't use his reach, and Fulton can delay his pressure with a fast combination to the head even it doesn't land clean. I don't think Fulton should try to keep the fight on the outside for as much of the fight as he can, Figueroa can make the best use of his size at close range, can smother Fulton's work more than his own, Fulton can work and use his speed and accuracy at mid range, he can do damage with fast, hard body, head combinations, but if he's always trying to create as much distance as he can, Figueroa will have time to get off first, can catch Fulton backing out with wide hooks, and Fulton's offence will suffer. Fulton should try to back Figueroa up less as the fight goes on, if he can back Figueroa up and neutralise him, it will be with speed and volume in the early rounds, but he doesn't have the strength to push Figueroa back, and he can do damage off the back foot in the later rounds.
Khan vs Brook
Khan should look to start the fight by taking centre ring, and backing Brook up, he shouldn't try to be selective or make Brook feel his power, but if he lets his hands go early, his speed will be a challenge for Brook mentally. Khan should vary his shots when he throws a combination, not focus on a particular shot, but variety will make his speed harder for Brook to deal with. Khan should step back at the end of a combination, but not pull back with his chin up, he should punch his way in and lead off as he's still getting back into range, because he's potentially there to be timed as he's moving on and off the offensive. Khan should let Brook work at long range, use his faster feet to make Brook fall short, he shouldn't try to be the counter puncher, but he shouldn't wait for Brook to throw before he let's his hands go, because if Brook is looking for a counter Khan can take advantage of that by out working him, and building momentum by being the aggressor as Brook is waiting for a mistake. If Khan hurts Brook, there's no reason for him to risk punching himself out or walking into a damaging shot, he's likely the better athlete, the late rounds are likely to favour him, it isn't a missed opportunity if he hurts Brook but doesn't stop him, he should keep throwing fast, varied combinations, and walk Brook down without putting power and aggression before defence, he has a better chance of stopping Brook with accumulation than power. Khan should out work Brook, but force Brook to exert movement, if he steps and leans back, Brook has to reach and force his footwork to get into range, and if Khan uses pivots after throwing a combination, Brook will have to reset.
Brook has to look to make Khan exert movement and slow down his legs, it's important for Brook that the first half of the fight takes more out of Khan than him, he shouldn't let Khan get off first and wait to land a counter off the back foot, he can't risk expecting Khan to make a mistake, he should take centre ring, and get off first with his jab, Khan has to react whenever Brook throws, and even if he can't find Khan's chin early, he will have more momentum if Khan is forced to back up. The fewer shots Khan throws in the early rounds, the better it is for Brook, of forces Khan to take more risks and open up more in the late rounds, and if Khan doesn't make mistakes, it's when Khan isn't throwing, that Brook has the opportunity get his own shots off. Brook should look to establish his jab, to score points, and to slow Khan down, he should look to vary the jab to the head and body, the jab can make Khan react defensively, affect him mentally, and make him reluctant to let his hands go. Brook should be conservative with his gas tank, and look to win rounds at a low tempo. It's as Khan's legs slow down that Brook should throw more power shots, but he can't afford to look for power or accuracy and let Khan rest when he's thinking, he should vary the right hand to the head and body so it's harder for Khan to adapt to, but if he throws the right to the body, he should step to the right and come in at an angle, because he could be a target for Khan's short left hook and uppercut if he cuts the distance, straight in front of him. The best thing Brook can do if he hurts Khan is keep him moving, keep throwing single shots to the head and body, he should try not to give Khan any respite, because the more he takes out of Khan, the less Khan can use his foot speed later in the fight, and the more likely he is to hurt Khan again.
Bivol vs Canelo
Bivol's jab is extremely important, for scoring points, and if he can back Canelo up with the jab, that favours Bivol heavily, but the most important purpose of his jab is maintaining the distance, because when Canelo is in range, Bivol is a target, his blocking won't help him, Canelo can find the gaps, and unload to the body, Bivol is in trouble if Canelo can fight on the inside. Bivol should vary the jab to the chin and chest of Canelo, so it's harder for Canelo to step in as he slips it. The pivot is important for Bivol, because if he can't stop Canelo coming forward, the pivot means Canelo has to reset, which disrupts his pressure. Bivol can't comfortably control the distance, Canelo is too skilled to be lined up for the right hand even if he takes the jab, won't be mentally deterred by the jab, so to maintain the distance, Bivol has to be busy with his jab, and use consistent lateral movement. Canelo will cut off the ring more easily and take more risks as the fight goes on. When Canelo has started getting into range consistently, that's when maintaining the distance should stop being Bivol's objective, because while he hesitates to throw, Canelo can walk him down without having to react to shots, Bivol should increase his variety as Canelo cuts distance, should still look to use the ring and move off the ropes, but he can delay Canelo letting his hands go and exploiting him being on the ropes, if he throws a combination first.
The straight right hand to the body is the best shot for Canelo in the early rounds, doesn't have to cut much distance to land it. Looking to be the counter puncher is the wrong game plan for Canelo, Bivol won't leave an opening for the counter right hand over the jab, will throw the double jab, will be mobile, and Canelo will be out worked. Canelo should try to step in with the right hand before Bivol can get his jab off, Bivol will have to exert movement, Canelo can cut off the ring more easily and pressure Bivol more consistently if he can stop him establishing his jab. Cutting off Bivol's pivot is important for Canelo's pressure, because he'll have to reset if Bivol pivots, and also because if Bivol steps to his right, Canelo can still land the double left hook, and keep Bivol under pressure. Trying to make Bivol feel the power early and mentally discourage him is the wrong tactic for Canelo, because Bivol fights with the mentality of respecting the opponents power, not taking unnecessary risks, and still being confident, Canelo should focus on negating Bivol's jab, has to adjust is position and make himself a small target even before he's cut the distance. I think letting Bivol work and waiting for him to punch himself out is a bad tactic for Canelo, because Bivol has a high output, and a solid 12 round gas tank, Canelo should look to throw more power shots than Bivol in every round.
Fury vs Whyte
Fury would be wise to fight Whyte as a southpaw, a southpaw is usually an easier target for the right hand than the left hook, and Whyte's left is definitely harder than his right. Another reason Fury should fight Whyte as a southpaw is because Whyte hasn't fought a southpaw in 7 years, has likely only fought 1 southpaw asa professional, and with his amateur career being so short, he can't have much of a background against southpaws. Fury can out fight Whyte at any range, can get the better of him going forwards, backwards, and in a stand off, but I think his best tactic is boxing on the back foot, at a low tempo, he can't out fight Whyte as easily on the inside as he can out box him on the outside, Whyte is comfortable on the back foot, can fight off the ropes, and he isn't a good pressure fighter, doesn't cut off the ring, Fury can easily control the distance and use his feet, and he doesn't have to throw many shots. If Whyte is on the inside, Fury can defend well, and do damage when Whyte has punched himself out, but if he lets Whyte throw on the inside, he's still in the pocket, and if he thinks Whyte doesn't have the power to hurt him, that's a bad mistake, his best tactic on the inside is to throw a combination before Whyte can get off, and then step around to the side.
The vast majority of Whyte's shots should be to the body, Fury's mobility is a big issue for him, and if he can slow his legs down, he has more of a chance, he should use his jab to keep Fury mentally busy, and as he's stepping in with power shots. Whyte has to do what he can get away with, he'll struggle to push Fury around, with Fury being stronger, but until he loses a point or is warned, he should implement dirty tactics, come in with the head, hold and hit, let shots stray below the belt, and try to push Fury down in clinches and make him uncomfortable. Whyte can't try to be clever and set up a KO, Fury won't take any bait, he has to be prepared to miss, he should look to catch Fury with the left hook as early as he can, and if he hurts him, he has to jab the head and body, and put the right hand behind it with urgency. There is a chance Fury won't be at his best, Whyte can hurt him, but pushing to hurt him early at the risk of punching himself out is a risk worth taking, because if Fury isn't at his best, Whyte's best chance of Fury slowing down later in the fight is having been hurt and having to survive and recover, whereas he's likely not to tire if Whyte doesn't hurt him at least once, because I don't think Whyte has the skill or the fitness himself, to stop Fury controlling the pace.
Stanionis vs Butaev
Stanionis has to back Butaev up and keep him at long range, he can't let Butaev attack the body, his jab is very important, and one of the reasons it's important is if he keeps Butaev on the end of his jab, Butaev has to lunge to go to the body, and if he does, the counter right uppercut could be there for Stanionis, that's his best shot. Stanionis should use his height, and follow the jab to the head with the right to the body, if he can land that shot consistently, it will slow down Butaev's legs, and it will make it easier for Stanionis to punch his way in, the fight favours Stanionis at close range, and he should try to close the gap, and not fight at mid range, because at close range, Butaev's body shots are more likely to be smothered, and Stanionis can get the uppercut off at close range, but he has to lead with his jab as he starts cutting distance.
Butaev should try to get his jab off first and take centre ring, Stanionis is a come forward fighter, and if his opponent can claim centre ring, that takes a lot away from him, and if Butaev can use his reach and out jab him, he makes him more of a target for a counter if he's throwing power shots at long range that don't come off the jab. Butaev should focus more on body shots than head shots, but he has to be wary of the right uppercut. The pivot is important for Butaev, he should be moving to his right for most of the fight, so he isn't at risk of moving into the right uppercut, he should throw the double jab, vary it to the head and body, take a half step to his right, and pivot off the right hook to the body. Butaev has to use his footwork, he has to keep the gap even when he's throwing power shots to the body.
Spence vs Ugas
Spence's movement is very important, Ugas doesn't take any bait, but he has slow feet, and Spence's best way to set up his power shots is with his feet, he should use lateral upper body movement to create the angles, but he can't stand in front of Ugas, at mid range, he has to move off to the side and make Ugas reset after throwing. Spence has to stay at long range when Ugas isn't on the ropes, it's important his foot is outside Ugas's not only to line up his left hand, but so his pivot is always there, because that's extremely important for him, and at long range, it's much harder for Ugas to cut off his pivot. Spence shouldn't step back, he should step to his right or move around to his left, but if he steps back, he gives Ugas the opening for the right to the body, and loses his counter opportunity, he should lean back when Ugas gets off at long range and stay in a position to land his own shots. Spence should be busy with his jab at long range, and when he's in front of Ugas, every power shot he throws should come off the jab, he can't try to make Ugas over reach at mid range, because Ugas's shortened right hand is a great shot. It's when Ugas is in the ropes that Spence should close the gap and attack in variety, he can dominate Ugas at close range, and that's his best opportunity to attack the body, but if Ugas is able to get off the ropes, Spence has to get back behind his jab.
Ugas should focus mainly on body shots, Spence's reflexes and reactions are brilliant, will be hard to hit to the head, and if Ugas can slow his legs down with body shots, he takes a lot away from Spence. Ugas should be busy with his front foot, he shouldn't have a wide stance throughout, he can't afford to stifle his balance, but he should try to cut off Spence as he tries to move to Ugas's left. It's important for Ugas to get off first, jabbing his way in is the best way to negate Spence's reach, and if he can jab and step in, the shortened right hand at mid range is his best head shot, but the lead jab is very important, because he's out of range on the end of Spence's jab, and his own jab will keep Spence mentally busy at the very least. It's important for Ugas to stay off the ropes, he needs to use his feet to keep the gap, because he'll struggle to work if Spence can force the fight at close range, which is another reason his jab is important. Ugas should be conservative with his power shots in the first half of the fight, Spence has better stamina, can afford to put more into the early rounds, Ugas has the skills to stop Spence settling into a rhythm, and if Spence is busier with his feet, is trying to set Ugas up and to establish his jab, the fight will take more out of Spence than Ugas. It's in the second half that Ugas should aim to increase his output, if Spence hasn't been able to establish his jab and his legs have slowed down, Ugas can be more accurate by putting shots together than early in the fight.
Taylor vs Serrano
Taylor should take centre ring and get off first to start the fight, she can't let Serrano build momentum and confidence by backing her up, she should back up after letting her hands go so she doesn't stay in the pocket, but she can't pull back in a straight line. Everything Taylor throws should come off the jab, she should vary the 1, 2, and power shots that come off the double jab, she has to prioritise making full use of her speed, especially in the early rounds.
Serrano should target the body more than the head in the early rounds, Taylor will be more of a target to the head as the fight goes on and her legs slow down. Taylor's jabbis a problem for Serrano, Serrano should fight low, not only to attack the body, but to be a tougher target for Taylor's jab, her front foot should be to the right of Taylor's, but if she leans to her left, the short left hand and left uppercut to the body is there, and Taylor has to step to her right and make herself more of a target on the process, for Serrano to be in position to be hit.
Parker vs Joyce
Parker should come in under 240, the worst thing he can try to do is match Joyce for strength, the longer he can keep up his movement for, the more agile he is, and the more punches he can throw over 12 rounds, the better. Parker should be prepared to lose the battle of the jabs, which is his biggest challenge, I think if he tries to bait jabs out of Joyce and set up the counter right hand over the top, that won't work, Joyce will throw every jab with confidence and purpose, will be ready to lean away from the right hand. It's important that Parker doesn't force his movement, but keeps making adjustments with his feet, he can't stand in front of Joyce and let him work, but he can exploit Joyce's poor ring cutting by staying mobile. Parker often uses feints when he fights, he can offset Joyce with a feint if Joyce hasn't established his jab, but if Parker is on the end of Joyce's jab, he is out of range, and trying to set traps with his speed won't work, his priority should be to cut distance. Parker should look to shift to his left and step in with the left hook, if he can do that, he's out of position to be hit as he comes in, he should pivot off the left hook, and make Joyce keep following him, he should follow up the left hook with the right uppercut once he's stepped into range, more often as the fight goes on. Feet adjustments are key for Parker throwing more power shots than Joyce if he can't out jab him, the way to do that is to throw combinations and exploit Joyce's lack of hand speed, lateral movement, shifting and leaning side to side with method will make it very hard for Joyce to be aggressive, he has to punch his way in, and he has to move off after letting his hands go. Parker shouldn't rely on the jab to set up the right hand, he should look to set up the right hand by stepping or leaning to his right, and go for the counter right over the top if Joyce paws with the jab or is slow to bring the left hand back.
Joyce has to start fast, he can't let Parker get into a rhythm, he doesn't need to out work Parker if he can establish his jab and Parker is working hard by throwing shots which out of range, but if Parker is out of position to be hit with the jab in the early rounds, and Joyce is struggling to cut him off, Joyce has to swarm Parker, and throw in high volume, because he doesn't have Parker's footwork, and he has to use his physicality to make Parker fight his fight. I think Joyce needs a different game plan to against Dubois, Parker will be more mentally prepared because he's more experienced, he won't be as hesitant as Dubois as Joyce gets off first at long range, and Parker is likely to adapt better than Parker if Joyce out jabs him, even with Parker's history of struggling when he's out jabbed, Joyce should definitely look to establish his jab and look to knick rounds with it at long range when the fight has dropped from a high tempo, but being reliant on his jab is risky. Joyce should come in with varied combinations, put Parker on the defensive and make him work mentally, the left hook is a great shot to start a combination, Parker is defensively more prepared for the right hand, and because it's a shorter shot, it's a better shot for Joyce to step in with as he looks to close the gap. I think trying to counter off the back foot is a bad main tactic for Joyce, because it lessens the use of his size, and it allows Parker to get off first and cut distance, it's important for Joyce that he gets his jab off first at long range, not only to use his reach, but because Parker isn't an easy target for counter punchers.
Haney vs Kambosos
Haney's jab and use of his reach are very important, he's better off being first with his jab rather than going 50/50 with Kambosos in a counter punching battle. I think Haney should look to jab off the back foot consistently, I don't think Kambosos is a good pressure fighter, he will struggle to cut Haney off, Haney can use his jab to keep him at bay at least for some of the fight, and if he can use it to score points at long range, it's Kambosos who has to take risks. Haney should be varied, he's more reliant on mobility than Kambosos, so he has to try to make it so that the fight takes more out of Kambosos than him, he should go to the body, but on the inside, he could fall onto a counter uppercut, and reaching with the lead right to the body could make him a counter target as well, Haney should throw the right to the body behind the jab to the head in a combination, and finish with the left hook as he steps back.
Kambosos has to try to nullify Haney's jab, being out worked is a concern for him, he should try to keep it at a low tempo. I think Kambosos, like Haney, is better on the back foot than the front foot, but if he backs up, he creates distance, and allows Haney to get his jab off. Kambosos should look to step to his right as he steps in, it could set up an opening for the over hand right, negate Haney's pivot, and he's out of position for Haney's jab. Kambosos's plan should be to keep the centre of the ring, establish himself as the counter puncher early, but he can't rely on counter punching, because that will allow Haney to get off first, Kambosos should look to stop Haney from working, keep him occupied mentally, use feints, and make Haney react, but at that tentative pace, he'll struggle to pick Haney off, so he has to let his hands go put Haney on the defensive, and make it so that Haney has to exert more movement than him.
Usyk vs Joshua II
Usyk had the perfect game plan last time, he looked to establish the left hand, get Joshua's respect, stop him using his size to build momentum, and as the fight went on, he didn't take unnecessary risks, was balanced and consistent with his movement, made the bigger fighter drain his own legs by having to move with him, and it was easier than it should have been. Usyk will need to make some changes if Joshua fights differently to the first time, not necessarily many, but if Joshua throws more shots this time, Usyk has to work more off the back foot, and make it less about backing Joshua up, he's likely to be more effective getting off first than as the counter puncher, relative to last time. I don't think Usyk should be heavier this time, he definitely shouldn't be over 225, trying to be stronger than Joshua is unrealistic, he was able to back up him up the first time even at a strength disadvantage, and if his stamina is compromised, that could be the difference in the late rounds if he's had to fight under pressure.
I think Joshua's game plan was very poor last time, he was reserved, tried to pick his shots, which is a good game plan against certain fighters, but it couldn't have bee worse against Usyk, apart from being hurt once against Gassiev in an otherwise highly one sided fight, Usyk has only ever had problems when his opponent has backed him up or out worked him, once he's settled into a rhythm, he's almost unbeatable, his fights against Hunter, Bellew, Chisora, and Briedis all back that up. Joshua's new coach has been clear his plan is for Joshua to be more aggressive this time, and I think specifically, the game plan for this fight will be to throw a lot of hard jabs in the early rounds, prioritise the use of his strength, put Usyk on the back foot early, I think Garcia will try to stop Joshua thinking without working, it's bound to be costly against Usyk, and won't expect Usyk to be a target for the right hand to the head just because he's a southpaw, I think Garcia will get Joshua to be as varied as he can, and have a high output.
I think Joshua is better off trying to walk Usyk down consistently than pin him on the ropes and unload, because although is stationary on the ropes and Joshua doesn't have to busy with his own feet, Usyk can defend and punch off the ropes, disrupting Joshua's pressure and forcing him to reset, whereas if Joshua keeps Usyk under educated pressure, and doesn't stop his movement, he forces him to drain his legs, and doesn't have to force his own feet or keep resetting. The right to the body was definitely a better shot for Joshua than the right to the head last time, and attacking the body is generally a better way to slow down the legs of a mobile opponent than attacking the head.