Prediction.

These are two fairly evenly matched fighters, there isn't much in it for age, miles, or experience, but the timing favours Smith, his form has been better than Vargas's, and he's been more active. The weight favours Smith, Vargas was fairly big at 147, did well to make 140 at 26, but Smith is big at 154, Vargas is usually the stronger fighter, but definitely not in this fight, and he can't hurt Smith. Vargas and Smith's styles are different, Vargas is better at long range, is better on the back foot, Smith is better on the inside, is a better pressure fighter, Smith hits harder, and has a better chin. Smith doesn't deal with combinations punchers well, and Vargas is a good combination puncher, Vargas has shown the ability to use his reach, he has the potential to out jab Smith, and Smith uses his own jab to get into range with his power shots, so if Vargas can win the battle of the jabs, he can definitely give Smith problems. If Smith can get inside Vargas's reach, Vargas can't stop him applying consistent pressure, I don't think he has the offensive ability to get the better of Smith without keeping the fight at long range. Although Vargas can box on the back foot, he is at his best when he is on the front foot, and Smith is highly likely to back him up, which takes a lot from him with how good Smith is when he's coming forward.

I think in the early rounds, Smith will cut off the ring and jab his way in, Vargas will struggle to time his own jab, which will allow Smith to cut distance, Vargas will throw combinations and use lateral movement, will be busier, which will delay Smith getting his own shots off, but Smith will be more comfortable, and Smith will get off first more often as the rounds go on, which will put Vargas on the defensive, Smith will struggle to set up the right hand, but will be varied, will pick his shots well, and his body shots will be more accurate going into the second half. I think Vargas will keep moving in the second half, but Smith will walk him down consistently, Vargas's guard will drop to block body shots, his movement will have slowed down, and Smith will land the over hand right, Vargas will hold up well mentally in the pocket, and throw back, but Smith will have all the momentum, and dominate the late rounds.

I think Smith wins a UD, I wouldn't be surprised if he got a late stoppage, I'd be surprised if Vargas won this with the weight and activity aspects.

Great performance from Smith, I think he is in his prime, he cut off the ring very well throughout, his defence and shot selection were solid, he applied consistent pressure, made Vargas work, and broke him down.