Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz

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Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
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Fan Cards: Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz

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Jarod Killian's picture

Gervonta Davis vs Leo Saint Croix

Jarod Killian's picture

Leo Santa Cruz UD12

Champion97's picture


Davis is a very heavy favourite, he's bigger, he's younger and fresher, and he's been the much more dominant fighter. I thought Davis was terrible against Gamboa, Gamboa was old, small at the weight, injured, has a vulnerable chin, and he was able to survive against Davis for 11 rounds, Davis couldn't walk him down consistently, and struggled to sustain an attack. Davis's lack of discipline and the question of whether he'll be drained at 130, are what makes this an interesting fight. Santa Cruz is a 4 weight champion, his career high was beating Frampton, but since then, he hasn't done much, there were fights that could have happened, but didn't, he doesn't seem to have gotten much worse or not to be training, but he hasn't been particularly impressive in any of his fights. This might well be a cash out for Santa Cruz, winning this fight is a very big ask, he won't have done badly financially if he retires after this fight.

Santa Cruz is the better athlete, the better professional, he'll have something to exploit if Davis is drained, but I still think Davis will beat him. Davis hits a lot harder than Santa Cruz has in any division, but at 130, Santa Cruz has very little power, Davis seems to have a solid chin, Santa Cruz has a good chin himself, but he's never been hit anywhere as hard as Davis hits. I don't think Santa Cruz has a bad style for Davis, his output could be a problem, but Santa Cruz is a come forward fighter, Davis can easily push him onto the back foot, so Santa Cruz will struggle to fight how he usually does. Santa Cruz has great variety, but so does Davis, he can box, can use his reach, but Davis is a solid technical fighter, has a great amateur background, has great head movement, is definitely a better defensive fighter than Santa Cruz, he's a counter puncher, he's accurate, and I think he's a level above Santa Cruz. The second half will be interesting, especially if Davis is drained, he's only been past 11 rounds once, only been past 7 rounds once, Santa Cruz has been 12 rounds, 10 times, but Santa Cruz will have had less control of the pace, will have been made to work harder.

I think Davis will be drained, I think Davis will struggle with Santa Cruz's work rate at times, Santa Cruz might hurt him to the body if he's able to get into range to land body shots without getting hurt, but I think Davis will slip most of Santa Cruz's punches, any head shots he does land will bounce off Davis. I think whenever Santa Cruz throws a single shot, Davis will land a counter, I think for most of the first half, Davis will come forward, be first with a single shot to the body or head, back him up, take a lot out of Santa Cruz, won't be working hard himself, and I think he'll be ahead after 6 rounds.

I think both will tire in the second half, but that will be more of a problem for Santa Cruz than Davis, especially in rounds 7-9, because I think Santa Cruz will struggle to take advantage when Davis steps back to take a breather, but whenever Santa Cruz has an inactive spell, Davis will still do some damage even when his shots have lost power. I think Davis will knick the narrow rounds, as the better technical fighter. I think Santa Cruz will rally in the last few rounds, Davis will be gassed, and Santa Cruz has great stamina, I could see him finishing fairly well, but he won't have the power or have it in the tank to dominate any of the late rounds, and Davis will still do significantly more damage whenever he does land.

I think at 135, Davis would stop Santa Cruz mid or late, but at 130, it will go the distance, it will be a competitive fight, I wouldn't be surprised if Davis stopped Santa Cruz, but I think Santa Cruz will go the distance, I don't think Davis will have the volume to stop Santa Cruz, I don't think he'll knock him out with 1 shot, because Santa Cruz will keep his guard up, and will be wary, and I don't think it will be demolition it's supposed to be.

I think I still have faith in Davis' power. As long as he has remained disciplined (with him you never know) I think he stops Leo late. Although I think you prediction and analysis is really good for this fight.

Champion97's picture

Thanks man. Davis will have been training for 3 months, it's just a question of where he was at when he started training.