Tue, 2019-09-10 12:35
I think Lubin will be better than Gausha when he is in his prime, his whole career has been impressive apart from the Charlo fight, he was a good amateur, he's had 22 pro fights, he isn't too inexperienced, but he hasn't peaked yet, at 23, hasn't been 12 rounds, 10 rounds only once, and having not really stepped up apart from the Charlo fight. Lubin got KO'd against Charlo, it was a great uppercut, in the first round, but he seems to have come back well from it, he stopped Ishe Smith in February, Smith was 40, but he went the distance against Lara, Jacobs, Julian Williams.
I think Gausha got robbed against Trout, I thought it was close, Gausha struggled in the late rounds, Trout did damage to the body, but I thought Gausha won clearly. I think Gausha is in his prime, at 32, he isn't old, he doesn't have a lot of miles, he has more amateur pedigree than Lubin, had a lot of WSB fights, not many more pro fights than Lubin, but fought Lara, Trout, been 12 rounds, been 10 rounds 6 times. Gausha, overall, is definitely more experienced, and the timing aspect benefits him.
I think Lubin will be more dangerous, early, he is fast, explosive, and Gausha is not the most durable, but I think if Gausha doesn't get caught with anything clean, blocks well, and let's Lubin be the aggressor just in the early rounds, his experience will be more of a factor as the fight goes on, Lubin will make more mistakes, get countered. Gausha is a much tougher opponent than anyone Lubin has beat, he doesn't hit anywhere near as hard as Charlo, and I haven't seen Lubin hurt apart from in the Charlo fight, but Gausha will test Lubin's chin, and if he can hurt Lubin, get him to back up, he can control the pace.
I think this is a 50/50 fight, I can see either fighter winning, I think Gausha would have won a year ago, definitely 2 years ago, and in 2 years, Lubin would definitely beat Gausha, but I think now, Lubin isn't in his prime, and the important factor will be whether he is close enough to his prime to beat Gausha, it might be the right time for him, but it might be too soon.
I think this will be a very close fight, I'm going with a draw.
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