Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia

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Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia
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Date: 
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Location: 
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, USA
Rounds Scheduled: 
12
Contracted Weight: 
147
Titles at Stake: 
IBF Welterweight World Title (Spence's 3rd defence)

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Fan Cards: Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia



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Comments

Champion97's picture

Prediction,

Two of my favourite fighters, two top 5 fighters (in my opinion), great fight.

I think for sheer calibre, in terms of who is better than who, it's 50/50, Mikey might have a very slight edge based on having the extra experience, but I think neither are top 2, but both are top 5, so it's 50/50.

Spence was the slightly better amateur, might have the best win between them with the Brook victory, but Garcia is a 4-weight world champion, he has had 39 fights, he is an absolute veteran, he's had 7 world title fights, Spence has had 3, had 24 fights, so experience is on Garcia's side.

Garcia is getting old, he has never taken a sustained beating, been down once or twice like most fighters are, but he is fresh for his age, he has had a lot of fights, but he has not been in any very damaging fights, and the most bother we've seen him in was when his nose was smashed by a head clash. Garcia is consistent in the gym, is always there, training camps are gruelling, but less so when the fighter starts camp in shape, that way the he isn't killing himself to get back in shape. 30 isn't old in this era, and I think age, for Garcia, isn't an issue yet, it will be soon, but it isn't now, and Garcia is in his prime. Spence is 28, the younger fighter, if anything, he might improve with 2 or 3 more fights. I doubt there's an age factor in this fight, because neither fighter is old, neither fighter is inexperienced, but Mikey has an experience edge, and if his age isn't an issue yet, then the age/experience balance favours him slightly.

The reason why this one isn't the fight everyone wants to see, is the size aspect. Garcia is 5'6, he has a reach of 68, he was a world champion at 126, he made 130 at 26, he is strong, agile, hits hard at 135, he has fought at 140 a few times, and since his long layoff, out of the 5 fights he's had, he's best performances have been his 2 fights at 135, because at 140, Garcia is still agile, strong, but less so than at 135. Spence is 5'9, he has a reach of 72, he has fought at light middle a lot in his career, he has even had one fight at middle, he is a big welter, I don't think Spence could get below 145, and he has mentioned moving up before, going up to fight Canelo, as Garcia is doing against him now. At some point in 2012, and 2013, Mikey was fighting at feather, and Spence was fighting at light middle.

If they were the same size I would say either a draw or a very close Garcia win, but I think for Spence, the big size advantage is more than enough to tip it in his favour.

I think this will be a great fight, it will go the distance, but Spence will win, and it won't be close.

At 147, Spence is strong, dangerous, has great stamina, but Mikey, at 147, can't carry his power up, he won't be a non-puncher, but the natural power he has, will be badly compromised, he will carry unnatural weight, which doesn't give you power, and he will be hitting a naturally bigger opponent than he's ever hit before, Spence will soak it up, and when Spence hits Garcia clean, Garcia won't soak it up, because he is simply too small.

Activity is on Garcia's side, 8 months is just a rest, not too much time out, probably the perfect amount of time, especially given that he has done 12 rounds 3 times in a row. Spence comes off 9 months out, not much longer than Garcia, but he didn't get taken into round 2, he hasn't been inactive, beat Brook in 17, fought twice in 18, looked great against Peterson, went 7 rounds, but 9 months might be slightly too long, and it will be 14 months between going past 1 round, which is not great, still, fought in June. Spence was out for 9 months, same amount of time, from Bundu to Brook, said he was rusty, gave himself a B-, talked about over shooting the jab. Spence came off many more rounds against Bundu than Ocampo, but he also goes into this fight, more experienced than he was against Brook, and ring rust is less of an issue for a more experienced fighter, so I think ring rust might be just a minor issue for Spence, still, might help Garcia get the good start he 100% needs.

I think Mikey will start well, Spence isn't the fastest starter, if you attack him with straight shots, he might take time to adapt, and Mikey is a great fundamental boxer, might the be the best basic boxer in the world, he is great at putting combinations together, but definitely early, I think Garcia will give Spence problems with his jab, consistent head movement, and one thing even Spence might struggle to negate, at least early, is Garcia's ability to blast the 1, 2 through the guard, without even the first shot getting fully blocked. I think Garcia will win the jab battle, and will have a couple of good moments, land a clean, stand out power shot on the counter every now and again.

I think this will be a fight with two halves, and although Spence will not have a great start, he will still make it hard for Garcia to work, will pressure him from the start, and will land the most hurtful punch against the smaller guy in almost all exchanges, and in rounds 5-7, he will start to really impose his strength on Garcia, walk him down, be prepared for Garcia being tough to control, but he'll walk through Garcia's power, and when they are on the inside, Spence will attack the body, win the inside exchanges. I think after 8 rounds, Garcia will slow down a lot, and at that point, Spence will really come on strong, hurt Garcia, inflict punishment, Garcia will grit it out and fire back, but Spence will be doing the damage, and the size advantage for Spence will be a big factor.

I think Spence and Garcia will go to the trenches in the late rounds, Spence will hurt Garcia, drop him twice, come quite close to stopping him, but Garcia will keep firing back, keep moving, throw the kitchen sink at Spence, land good shots, won't hurt Spence, but Spence might punch himself out. I think both will be tired in round 12, but Garcia more so, and Spence will hurt him again, get the best of it. I think they will go all out in the last round, both will empty their tanks, trying to KO each other, Spence will get the best of the closing stages, doing more damage, but Garcia will fight harder as Spence hurts him, and he won't look to survive, but he won't be able to trouble Spence because of his size disadvantage.

I think Spence beats Garcia by UD, 115-111/116-110.

Mikey should be commended for taking this fight, the pressure is not on him to win, he is not expected to, probably 90% think he will lose, but he has to be respected, win or lose, Thurman, Pacquiao, maybe even Danny Garcia, don't seem to want to fight Spence, can't blame them, you have to be confident of a win in boxing, otherwise you are beaten before you are in the ring, but welterweights are avoiding Spence, Garcia is jumping up two weights, going into new territory.

The pressure is on Spence, he can't overlook another great fighter, size advantage or not, he's fighting a more experienced fighter who is not old, not declining yet, who will have a great game plan, and a fighter who has seen something in his work in the ring which is sloppy, he's seen a weakness, and Spence can't know what Garcia has seen, what he plans on exploiting, so Spence has to be adaptable, he proved his adaptability against Brook, but he has to be better in this fight, know how exploit Garcia's lack of size. Spence should get immense credit if he wins this, beats a fresh 30 year old Garcia, that's a great a great win, size advantage or not, because a fighter who is not great, doesn't beat Garcia unless his size advantage is much more than this.

I don't think this win will raise Spence's stock, but it will be a great win for his resume, great experience. If Mikey wins this, he's a boxing legend, no doubt about it.