Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia

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Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, USA
Rounds Scheduled: 
Contracted Weight: 
Titles at Stake: 
IBF Welterweight World Title (Spence's 3rd defence)


Fan Cards: Errol Spence Jr vs Mikey Garcia

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Champion97's picture


Spence was the slightly better amateur, might have the best win between them with the Brook victory, but Garcia is a 4-weight world champion, he has had 39 fights, he is an absolute veteran, he's had 7 world title fights, Spence has had 3, had 24 fights, so experience is on Garcia's side.

Garcia is getting old, he has never taken a sustained beating, been down once or twice like most fighters are, but he is fresh for his age, he has had a lot of fights, but he has not been in any very damaging fights, and the most bother we've seen him in was when his nose was smashed by a head clash. Garcia is consistent in the gym, is always there, training camps are gruelling, but less so when the fighter starts camp in shape, that way the he isn't killing himself to get back in shape. 30 isn't old in this era, and I think age, for Garcia, isn't an issue yet, it will be soon, but it isn't now, and Garcia is in his prime. Spence is 28, the younger fighter, if anything, he might improve with 2 or 3 more fights. I doubt there's an age factor in this fight, because neither fighter is old, neither fighter is inexperienced, but Mikey has an experience edge, and if his age isn't an issue yet, then the age/experience balance favours him slightly.

The reason why this one isn't the fight everyone wants to see, is the size aspect. Garcia is 5'6, he has a reach of 68, he was a world champion at 126, he made 130 at 26, he is strong, agile, hits hard at 135, he has fought at 140 a few times, and since his long layoff, out of the 5 fights he's had, his best performances have been his 2 fights at 135, because at 140, Garcia is still agile, strong, but less so than at 135. Spence is 5'9, he has a reach of 72, he has fought at light middle a lot in his career, he has even had one fight at middle, he is a big welter, I don't think Spence could get below 145, and he has mentioned moving up before, going up to fight Canelo, as Garcia is doing against him now. At some point in 2012, and 2013, Mikey was fighting at feather, and Spence was fighting at light middle.

I think this will be a great fight, it will go the distance, but Garcia will win, it will be very close, but Mikey will pull out the upset. I think Spence is great, and I would not be at all surprised if he won, he has a big size advantage, but I believe not only is he still a fight away from his prime, but it is very easy to underestimate an opponent to the extent that Spence isn't dedicating his life's work to this one fight in particular, I think Garcia's career, legacy, depends on this fight, I think he knows none of his performances since he came back from his layoff have been him at his 100% best, and he wants to prove to the world that he is a special fighter, he has out himself through hell and back, been to SNAC, trained in tough conditions. Spence, I think will be professional, but to him, this is another day at the office, I don't think he will pull out a career best performing the way Garcia will.

At 147, Spence is strong, dangerous, has great stamina, but Mikey, at 147, can't carry his power up, he won't be a non-puncher, but the natural power he has, will be badly compromised, he will carry unnatural weight, which doesn't give you power, and he will be hitting a naturally bigger opponent than he's ever hit before.

Activity is on Garcia's side, 8 months ia a rest, not too much time out, probably the perfect amount, given that he has done 12 rounds 3 times in a row. Spence comes off 9 months out, not much longer than Garcia, but he didn't get taken into round 2, he hasn't been inactive, beat Brook in 17, fought twice in 18, looked great against Peterson, went 7 rounds, but 9 months might be slightly too long, and it will be 14 months between going past 1 round, which is not great. Spence was out for 9 months, same amount of time, from Bundu to Brook, said he was rusty, gave himself a B-, talked about over shooting the jab. Spence came off many more rounds against Bundu than Ocampo, but he also goes into this fight, more experienced than he was against Brook, and ring rust is less of an issue for a more experienced fighter, still, I think ring rust might be a minor issue for Spence, still, might help Garcia get the good start he 100% needs.

I think Mikey will start well, Spence isn't the fastest starter, if you attack him with straight shots, he might take time to adapt, and Mikey is a great fundamental boxer, might the be the best basic boxer in the world, he is great at putting combinations together, so definitely early, I think Garcia will give Spence problems. One thing Spence might struggle to negate, at least early, is Garcia's ability to blast the 1, 2 through the guard, without even the first shot getting fully blocked. I think Garcia will win the jab battle (that will be interesting because of Spence's reach advantage), and will out box Spence, use feints well, set Spence up and counter him.

I think Spence will make it hard for Garcia to work, will pressure him early, but because of Garcia's experience edge, maybe his superior knowledge on Spence as opposed to vise verse, Garcia will be a step ahead, Spence will struggle with his quick reactions, angles.

In rounds 5-7, Spence will really impose his strength on Garcia, walk him down, will be frustrated, but he'll walk through Garcia's power. When they are on the inside, I think Spence will attack the body, and that will sap a lot out of Garcia, but Spence will keep taking more than he is landing in exchanges, and he will struggle with the subtle head movement, and solid blocking from Garcia.

I think after 8 rounds, Garcia will slow down a lot, and at that point, Spence will really come on strong, hurt Garcia, inflict punishment as they go to the trenches in the late rounds, Spence will drop Garcia, come close to stopping him, but Garcia will keep moving, but also throw the kitchen sink at Spence, land good shots, won't hurt Spence, but Spence might punch himself out. I think both will be tired in round 12, but Garcia more so, and Spence will get the best of the dogfight. I think they will go all out at the end, both will empty their tanks, try to KO each other, Spence will get the best of the last seconds, do more damage, Garcia will fight harder as Spence hurts him, he won't look to survive, but he won't be able to hurt Spence because of his size disadvantage.

I think Garcia beats Spence by SD, 112-115, 113-114, 115-112.

Mikey should be commended for taking this fight, the pressure is not on him to win, he is not expected to, probably 90% think he will lose, but he has to be respected, win or lose.

The pressure is on Spence, he can't overlook another great fighter, size advantage or not, he's fighting a more experienced fighter who is not old, not declining yet, who will have a great game plan, and a fighter who has seen something in his work in the ring which is sloppy, he's seen a weakness, and Spence can't know what Garcia has seen, what he plans on exploiting, so Spence has to be adaptable, he proved his adaptability against Brook, but he has to be better in this fight, know how exploit Garcia's lack of size. Spence should get immense credit if he wins this, beats a fresh 30 year old Garcia, that's a great win, size advantage or not, because a fighter who is not great, doesn't beat Garcia unless his size advantage is much more than this.

Another good write up mate! I'm really excited about this fight as like you, have these two highly rated. Mikey is one of my favourite fighters, I like his methodical approach and his boxing IQ.

Again, we're of very similar thinking. I just can't see how Mikey can negate what will be a huge size, strength and athletic advantage for Spence. The guy is an animal. Spence wins this fight for sure, the question is whether Mikey can go the 12. A lot of it will probably boil down to how he does moving up the weight. When Spence starts digging those enormous body shots in, the fight is going to get rough for Mikey.

It's a real shame we can't get Mikey and Loma to get together for a cup of tea, that's surely the fight everyone wants to see at that kind of weight.

I'm kinda hoping Mikey makes it through the fight without too much damage because this has the potential to be the beginning of the end of him, very much like it was for Kell Brook when he moved up 2 weights to face GGG. Kell has never and will never recover from that imo.

I didn't commend Kell or Amir for moving up to face GGG/Canelo because for me, it was nothing more than a pay day. For Mikey I do feel it's a bit different, he's always wanted the huge fights against anyone and has never been bothered what division it's in. He's a man of principle (as per all the promotional struggles).

Overall I'm very torn on whether Spence wins 116-112 ish or whether he gets the stoppage between 7-12.

Champion97's picture

I've changed my prediction for this fight, I think Mikey will pull it out!

It's not a crazy thought. All being equal this would be a 50/50 fight for sure. I just think the difference in size and Spence being the natural Welter will take it's toll in the second half of the fight. Not to mention Spence is big for the weight to begin with. Those body Spence must be one of the best pound for pound body punchers on the planet, not the type of guy you want to move up 2 weights to face :-/

Canelo is the best bodypuncher in boxing in my opinion. Spence is probably second and I think he will stop Mikey with body shots late. Then comes Inoue and Lomachenko, who are fantastic bodypunchers as well.

Champion97's picture

I agree, the body work from him against Fielding was brilliant, that body shot against Smith was great, and the odd body shot or two might have slowed Khan down just that crucial little bit, against Lara as well, won him the fight against a wiley customer in Lara.

I can't say that I think this was a smart fight for Mikey to take, Spence is by far bigger, stronger, and better than anybody Mikey Garcia has ever fought.

When I first heard this fight made my thought was that there was no plausible way Mikey Garcia could win this but having watched quite a few fights where division jumpers succeeded I've come to this conclusion: Mikey's going to have to completely change the way he fights.

Mikey's a come forward fighter, but his defense isn't great. He's not going to be able to just walk forward against Spence like he's used to. He gets hit a lot and Spence hits harder than anybody he's ever fought. He'll have to fight on the back foot, and use the jab to keep himself off the ropes. But Spence is much larger than him with longer reach and a height advantage which will require him to get within Spence's range to really do much, but that's going to be the danger zone for him.

Distance is the enemy of the body puncher though, and nothing kills a smaller fighter like punches to the body. So therefore movement will be paramount if he wants to win.

Mikey's got to try to win on points here because he does not have the kind of power it's going to take to really do any kind of damage unlike normal.

The problem here is that Mikey basically has to fight the exact opposite of how he normally does in order to win, while Spence just has to do what he always does to beat Garcia.

I take Spence by TKO in the 8th.

albertocastany's picture

Mikey gets this one on 12 Rounds. Spence has so many flaws on his game, that Mikey will have a good time countering him all night. Spence wont be able to figure out what happened.

Champion97's picture

I think Mikey wins as well. I am not betting, but you could get good money on Mikey.

I don't know, maybe I'm missing something with Mikey Garcia, but I just don't see what everybody else is seeing. He's good, but nothing I've seen from him has really shown me that he has what it takes to beat Spence. He doesn't really have a ton of power above 135, and even there it's not other worldly. Sergey Lipinets was able to give Garcia problems, and landed shots that backed him up, while Mikey's knockdown was more of a well timed counter than power. He clearly won the fight but it wasn't a virtuoso performance by any stretch

Now he's fighting a much bigger man than Lipinets, who is a better boxer than Lipinets, and who hits much harder than Lipinets.

I give him full credit for taking the fight, but considering Garcia's size & power disadvantage, and his less than stellar defense I just don't see this as a good idea.

And if I'm wrong I'll eat crow on this one.

It's his boxing IQ that impresses me. You know how Crawford figures out his tactics and makes adjustments in the first 2-3 rounds, Mikey has the ability to do that before the fight. Give credit to his trainer too, his game plan always seems solid. I think he'll try to box this fight like he did zlaticanin, keep a constant jab in Spence's face, wait for him to make a mistake and hit him with big counters. Mikey can fight on the back foot if necessary.

However....the question is whether Mikey has enough power up at Welter to keep Spence off of him, if not Spence will just walk through him. Kell Brook hits hard at Welter and managed to out box and hit spence with flush shots for half of the fight but even that kind of power wasn't enough to deter Spence. He ground Kell down eventually.

I do think Kell showed the blueprint on how to beat Spence but let's not forget the natural size difference and the fact that Mikey is moving up 2 divisions could prove huge in this fight. 12 rounds is a long time to be in with a guy like Spence.

albertocastany's picture

Mikey gets this one on 12 Rounds. Spence has so many flaws on his game, that Mikey will have a good time countering him all night. Spence wont be able to figure out what happened.

Mikey to be up through 8. Then Spence starts grinding him down whilst Mikey is tiring. I reckon Mikey may touch the canvas but he'll survive and should win the decision, but it'll be a close one. Something like 115-112, 114-113 etc