Denis Lebedev vs Mike Wilson

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Denis Lebedev vs Mike Wilson
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Saturday, November 24, 2018
Casino de Monte Carlo Salle Medecin, Monte Carlo, Monaco
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Fan Cards: Denis Lebedev vs Mike Wilson

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Champion97's picture


Interesting fight.

Wilson is 19-0, 42% KOs, not a puncher, not a non-puncher, 35, not young, wasn't a bad amateur, but didn't have a good enough amateur career that it compensates for his lack of professional experience. 'Padded record' might not be far off the mark, because Wilson has had a fair few fights, but his opposition has been poor, definitely when we are talking about world level, he has never had a 12 round fight, has just won two 100-90 UDs in a row, so doing the rounds won't be an issue at all until possibly the championship rounds if even then, but for 17 fights, he had only 8 and less round fights, his opposition has improved slightly in his last fight or two, but at world level, still very poor. This is a big step up for Wilson, he's big for the weight, he's unbeaten, he has had mostly an easy career so far, he's fresh, if he is good, this is his best, probably his only chance to prove it. Wilson turned pro in 2009, so at 26, not too late a start, but he hasn't been consistent, had no fights in 2011, had no fights in 2014, just one in 2010, but inactivity shouldn't be an issue, because he has been 10 round twice in a row, his last fight was in March, 8-9 months, probably not too much time out, and he had 3 fights in 2017, 3 in 2016, so in recent years, Wilson has been active.

Lebedev is good, he beat Roy Jones Jr and James Toney in 2011, defended his title 4 times, unified, only to lose a split decision to Murat Gassiev in 2016. Lebedev in 2011-16, was a good champion, wasn't that active, did well, and in 2015 and 16, he beat Lateef Kayode and Victor Ramirez. Since losing to Gassiev, Levedev has fought twice, came back in good time to beat Mark Flanagan by a 12 round UD, but then was out for 14 months, before stopping disappointing Hizni Altunkaya in 3 rounds, 2-3 months ago. Lebedev hasn't been active, not too inactive, but less active than ideal, he is 39, and he has some miles, been in some wars, against Gassiev, against Kalenga, and most of all, against Jones, a drug cheat, a fight he took a brutal beating in. Lebedev is definitely past his prime, well past it, mentally, he probably isn't as motiavted, confident as he used to be, but he might not be shot yet, we will find out in this fight, at least to an extent, how far past prime Lebedev is.

Wilson is younger, fresher, he's a lot bigger, and the timing suits him down to the ground, in terms of form, momentum, he has a chance, but not only does he not hit as hard as Levedev (and given the difference in opposition, the 26% KO ratio difference isn't the full extent of the difference in power), but he has had 15 fights less, wasn't a better amateur, has done less than half the rounds, and most importantly, they have been competing levels apart from each other, the quality of the experience they have, the level of opponent, no comparison, Levedev has probably beaten 15 better fighters than the best opponent Wilson has beat, and in my opinion, that is why he wins this fight, it's levels.

I think Lebedev can still hold up against the power of a fighter with a minority share of KOs, the size aspect is nothing new to him, even if Wilson is a good fighter, his lack of experience at this level will be a real problem for him, and he might not be a good fighter. I think this will be a comfortable win for Lebedev, if not a stoppage, a very one sided UD, it will just simply be a less dominant win than Lebedev wouldn't have gotten against a Mike Wilson 3 years ago.

I think Lebedev stops Wilson in 7 rounds.