Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury

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Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury
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Date: 
Saturday, December 1, 2018
Location: 
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California, USA
Rounds Scheduled: 
12
Contracted Weight: 
Unlimited
Titles at Stake: 
WBC Heavyweight World Title (Wilder's 8th defence)

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Fan Cards: Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury



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Comments

Champion97's picture

Prediction,

Awesome that this fight is on!
Seems like Joshua vs Wilder wasn't going to happen because the teams couldn't agree, but Fury doesn't have the privileges of a unified champion like Joshua does, he couldn't claim as much, so Wilder's team could take the deal, make the fight, and be happy with the terms. This is a very ideal fight for Wilder, a win would be great for his resume, because when it comes to comparing what he has achieved to Joshua, his problem has been not only that he has 1 belt and Joshua has 3, but also that Joshua's win over Klitschko has been the difference, and even when Wilder beat Ortiz, it wasn't really as significant as Joshua's best win, but if Wilder beats Fury, he beats the guy who beat Klitschko, which would definitely make him, on paper, in terms of names beaten, every bit as much of a proven fighter as his rival. Wilder cannot look past Fury, the Joshua fight is still a possibility for the future, but Wilder doesn't need to think about fighting Joshua at all until he has beaten Fury, and he must not overlook Fury, because Fury is a threat.

I think Tyson Fury, in terms of boxing and fighting potential, had what it took to be the best heavyweight in history, I knew he would beat Klitschko, but, timing is important in boxing. I think Fury is better than Wilder, I think defensively (and defensively, there is no comparison), in terms of footwork, being a complete, compact boxer, Fury is much the superior, but Wilder is an outstanding puncher, an extremely dangerous fighter, he has that fight changing power, and he hits much harder than Fury.

Timing is important, and although Fury, at 250-260, having done a one sided, easy 10 rounds, training hard, still only 30, is solid fitness wise, has good stamina, he still doesn't have the stamina, athleticism of Wilder, because although Fury has whipped himself into shape, he was about 370lbs when Wilder was training, fighting, in great shape, consistently, just as he is now, and Fury can't have built up that level of fitness in the time he has had since he was out of the gym, obese, and even taking cocaine.

This is not necessarily Puncher vs Boxer, because Wilder has had 8 fights in 2015-now, Fury has had 4 fights in that time, he had no fights in 2016 or 17, that's a big difference in activity, and when a fighter has been active, he can get into that rhythm, his reflexes, timing, it is there, it comes to together for the fighter, but a rusty, inactive fighter struggles to find his rhythm, he's sloppy, his timing is off, and he is more likely to slip up and make mistakes. Fury has had two fights since Wilder's last fight, that helps him, that lessens his inactivity issue, but given that Wilder had 5 fights in Fury's 30 months out, and Wilder fought at a much higher level overall, Fury's two comeback fights don't nearly compensate, and activity is still on Wilder's side, no doubt.

I think 4 of Wilder's 5 opponents during Fury's layoff, were better than either of Fury's comeback opponents, I think the weakest of the 7 is Fury's first comeback opponent, by far the strongest is Wilder's last opponent, so in terms of levels they have been competing at in the last 3 years, you would have to say Wilder is much better prepared for this fight.

Wilder is a brilliant offensive fighter, he has a good, accurate jab, and his variety, timing, accuracy, precision, brilliant, he has devastating power, he has that high output, and he carries his power into the late rounds, as he has proven several times. Wilder has a great, varied offensive arsenal, he lands at angles, he can land hurtful straight shots, he is very unpredictable, and when he has you hurt, he is on you in the twinkling of an eye, he is a brilliant finisher. The counter that Wilder landed to start the last onslaught on Ortiz, the right hand that sparked Szpilka, that was class, that was a brilliant, accurate, well timed right hand, Wilder has great focus, he can hit you when you don't see it coming, he waits to catch you off guard. Wilder was in terrible trouble against Ortiz, and he took a sustained beating, when he was close to gone, when his senses were gone, but although Ortiz was hitting him with one clean, crushing shot after another, Wilder did not go down, Ortiz couldn't finish him, Wilder proved to be extremely durable, proved to have a great chin, proved to have a lot of heart and desire, and was able to recover, come back from being on the egde of defeat, to stopping his opponent, that's the mark of a true champion.

I have always said it, Tyson Fury is dangerous when he is hurt, when he doesn't get hit, he picks up the points, as he did against Johnson, Chisora, but when he was dropped against Cunningham, he ended up turning the tables, knocking Cunningham out, and when Pajkic had him on his back, he came and stopped him in the next round. Against Klitschko, when Klitschko was reluctant, gunshy for 10 rounds, Fury defended, just did enough work to keep taking the rounds, boxed extremely well, showed a lot of ring IQ, but when Klitschko took more risks, came forward in the last 2 rounds, Fury became more dangerous, had Klitschko in trouble late in round 11. What is very interesting, is if Wilder hits Fury clean, hurts him, and jumps all over him, what happens then?, does Fury have the power to hurt Wilder? Fury is dangerous when he is hurt, but to what extent?, he has never faced a puncher like Wilder, when he is out on his feet, dazed, what can he physically drag out of himself? Fury is a big heavyweight, so he shouldn't age quickly, but cocaine takes a toll on the brain, Fury has been down hard twice, hurt a few times, how is his resistance comapred to what it was? And how is his recovery comapred to what it was? Mentally, how does he fare in the trenches?

Wilder is 33, still young for a heavyweight, he is of African descent, which is an advantage, and although he has hand issues, usually takes punches, I don't think he has too many miles, Washington, Szpilka, unable to hurt him, he was very briefly hurt against Duhaphas and Molina, but didn't get dropped or take much in the follow up, he has been down once, a while ago, and against Ortiz, he took serious damage, which may have permanently taken something away from his punch resistance, but the beating did only last 45 seconds, it wasn't a round by round beatdown, Wilder will have benefited from the 9 month rest between fights, and that is the only time we have ever seen him beaten up and in real trouble.

I think Wilder is still the slightly fresher fighter, and I think in terms of who holds up naturally better when they get hit, who is harder to hurt, I think that is Wilder.

I think Fury will out box Wilder for about 6 rounds, just move do what he did so well against Klitschko and that is make full use of his reach advantage, score a couple of clean shots, and Wilder will be patient, and although he will look limited for a lot of straight minutes, he will just need one stand out counter, and he will do damage, put Fury down early, and hurt him.

I think Wilder will get behind his jab as Fury's movement slows down just slightly, and he can break Fury's rhythm, and Fury will struggle to match Wilder's ability to shoot out straight, precise, hard shots, and if he engages, he'll come off worse as the much lesser puncher.

I think it will be a dogfight, both might even go down, but as the rounds go by, fatuige will be a bigger problem for Fury than Wilder, because Wilder's harder punches will knock more out of him than his will knock out of Wilder, and because Wilder is the superior athlete, he will finish stronger, Fury will lapse in focus, his legs will let him down, and when Fury is vulnerable and caught off guard, Wilder will land a KO punch, set it up perfectly, land a well timed, accurate fight finisher, maybe in round 12.

I wonder what the rematch situation is for this fight. The winner of this fight, against Joshua, next year, could be one of the biggest fights in boxing history.

Fury is a threat, I wouldn't be shocked if he won this, there is only one Tyson Fury, but I think he has been too inactive, doesn't have the power, will suffer the consequences of his years away from boxing, Wilder is also a great fighter, and I'm 70% sure Fury will lose.

I think both fighters are going to take a lot of damage in this fight, especially Fury, I think Fury will retire after this fight, and I think the only purpose of the remainder of Wilder's career, is fighting Joshua. I think Joshua vs Wilder will happen, I think it makes both sides too much money, there is too much to gain, there is too much public demand from every boxing fan on the planet, and the fight will happen late in 2019.

If Fury wins this, then the Joshua fight will happen I think, it would be the biggest fight in British boxing, maybe ever, Froch vs Groves, Benn vs Eubank, Frampton vs Quigg, I think Joshua vs Fury would be the biggest fight in British boxing history, it is possible, it depends on whether or not Fury beats Wilder, which he might, but I don't think he will.

KaiserKoba's picture

Agreed. I definitely give Wilder the edge to win this by KO at anytime during the fight. Fury's slickness and reach advantage will be annoyance for Wilder getting picked off by the jab, he can wait till he's 6-0 down and still pull out a right hand to end the fight.

Wilder at the high level always seems to enjoy counter-punching (how he pulled out the win against Ortiz more or less). Fury better be wise to keep feinting and land a few eye catching shots to win the round and give Wilder as little opportunity to counter as possible. Wilder always looks pretty terrible as the attacker on the front foot and does all sorts of strange things (virtually swinging forearms).

Nice breakdown overall.

Champion97's picture

Thanks!

I think he wants to make Fury work, because when Fury is fatuiged, he is more likely to leave an opening later, and Wilder can land clean, hurt Fury, and when Wilder has you hurt, he is all over you, he has variety, versatility, stamina.

He did that going backwards, what a shot! Does he have that in the tank? the 3 minute focus?, movement?, reactions? I don't think so, Wilder only needs one mistake. He swings wildly, but he is effective, sometimes he does the wrong thing, makes the fight tougher than it needs to be, but other times, he is more sensible.

Would you like to be involved in Prediction Champion of the Month?

KaiserKoba's picture

Is it a bit like: https://www.boxingprophet.com/ ?
It's a website where you make an account and predict fights and gets points based on how accurate you are. More points for more accurate predictions like predicting an upset winner via KO in rounds 1-4 will get you huge points.

I hate to sit on the fence but I used to use that website more frequently but just kept forgetting to make predictions and/or watch both fighters involved (to give a true assessment). I'm not sure.

Champion97's picture

Yes, but less big a deal, and there isn't an aspect for predicting upsets, but yes, you get more points for more accurate predictions.

Here is how it works
http://www.eyeonthering.com/forum/prediction-champion-month

Here is the vault
http://www.eyeonthering.com/forum/fight-vault-pcom

Here is the scoreboard
http://www.eyeonthering.com/forum/pcom-scoreboard

Gold's picture

This is a fantastic fight and is the best scheduled in boxing right now. It is disappointing that we don’t have Joshua vs. Wilder but this is a worthy substitute. Wilder vs Fury is an evenly matched fight between stylistically polar opposite fighters with the pure puncher Wilder and the pure boxer Fury, but they both have viable routes to winning this fight. Some people believe this fight is too early in Fury’s comeback and that Wilder will KO a diminished version of Fury, but I don’t think Fury would take this fight if he didn’t think he could win. I also think Fury is a difficult and unique test for Wilder. I think most people believe if Fury is near the level he was at versus Wladimir Klitschko he would easily beat Wilder, but most people don’t believe he is anywhere near that level. When this fight was booked I would agree, but as time has passed he seems to be in good shape and he looks to be extremely dialed in. Therefore, I favor Fury 55/45.

In terms of outside factors, Wilder has the advantage. While Wilder has never fought on pay per view and has fought in Los Angeles once but he is the A-side home boxer with the greater promotional backing. Versus Ortiz in New York, Wilder was definitely down on the scorecards but all three judges had him ahead. Fury’s style also doesn’t endear him to the judges, when he is doing well he is largely negating what his opponent wants to do instead of asserting his own will. If this fight was to go the distance and it was close, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilder got the benefit of the doubt.

For Wilder, this is the greatest test of his career so far. His last fight versus Luis Ortiz was his greatest test to that point and he passed it in a fight that raised the stock of both fighters, but it was not easy at all. The Ortiz fight was a higher stakes version of Wilder’s other most difficult fights. When Wilder fought Szpilka and Washington, he also had difficulty boxing them before getting the knockout as he did with Ortiz. However, versus Ortiz, he got caught and nearly stopped by a big puncher, but showed a lot of heart to recover and finish Ortiz. Again and again he has been able to set up his vaunted power which may be the best pound for pound in boxing and finish fights, but will he be able to do that versus Fury?

For Fury, he is taking a huge risk fighting such a dangerous opponent with only fourteen rounds under his belt since his two and a half year layoff where he blew up to nearly four hundred pounds. At his peak level, Fury has the potential to be an all-time great, and I think that is still possible for him to achieve. However, throughout his career, Fury has been very mercurial. Versus Pajkic and Cunningham he was downed, and versus McDermott the first time he really struggled. However, in his best performances, he has been nearly flawless. He easily beat contender level opponents like Dereck Chisora and Christian Hammer before easily beating the longtime reigning all-time great Wladimir Klitschko. Right now, he seems to be extremely motivated, in his comeback versus little-regarded opponents in Seferi and Pianeta the pounds have been coming off and he looks to be regaining his form, but is Wilder too much too early for Fury?

While it is easy to draw parallels between Ortiz and Fury for Wilder and Klitschko and Wilder for Fury, they present different challenges. For Wilder to win, he is going to have to stay composed without being too tentative and try to establish his jab and then follow it up with his money punch in the straight right. He really can end the fight with one good clean punch, but the question is if he can land it. Versus Ortiz, he was too tentative early on because he was worried about Ortiz’s power, and he ended up giving away rounds. While Fury doesn’t have the power of Ortiz, Fury is bigger, rangier, has much better movement and is harder to hit than Ortiz. Wilder also likes to catch guys counter punching, but I don’t think Fury will give him the opportunities that guys have given him in the past. Despite being dropped versus lesser opponents, I think Fury has a good chin, Klitschko did hit him with a few good straight rights and Fury was able to take them. With that being said, the main route for Wilder to win is still to try to establish his power. He should try to use his jab, establish some control, set up his straight right, but also to take chances and assert his will on Fury and eventually try to knock him out. Wilder is not a good or versatile boxer, but what he does do he does well and he has good finishing ability. While the obvious route to victory for Wilder is a knockout, I don’t think it is impossible for Wilder to win a decision if Fury is too tentative, doesn’t have the stamina and Wilder can establish his power on Fury.

For Fury to win, the prerequisite is showing up in world championship shape which I believe he will do. Wilder has never had an issue with showing up out of shape and has a good motor, so Fury will have to match that. Some people believe that Fury will struggle because he hasn’t done enough rounds in his comeback, but I don’t believe that will be an issue. Fury has quality sparring and is an experienced ex-world champion, therefore I don’t think ring rust will be a relevant factor. In his signature victory versus Wladimir Klitschko, the best win any Heavyweight has today, he shut Klitschko down entirely. Klitschko was not in his prime, but he was still the best heavyweight in the world and given that Joshua went life and death with Klitschko a year and a half later, it is an even greater victory. The things that Fury can replicate that he did in the Klitschko fight is making himself extremely hard to find. Fury’s movement in that fight is arguably the best showcase of movement in Heavyweight history outside of Muhammad Ali. His combination of foot movement, upper body movement, faints, switch-hitting, defense and ring IQ are simply unheard of for someone his size, and I think he can replicate that versus Wilder. However, Klitschko is an extremely predictable fighter which made him easier for Fury to figure out, Wilder is going to do things off of instinct that Fury won’t be able to time, and he will have to be ready for that.

As a larger point, throughout boxing history in big fights between a boxer and a puncher, the boxer wins more often than not because they have more tools at their disposal and more gears they can go through. I think Tyson Fury will win this fight, but I would not be surprised if Deontay Wilder won. I think that Fury will be in a lot better shape than people expect him to be. He will be able to use his ring IQ, movement, faints, switch-hitting, and defense to make himself hard to hit, negate what Wilder wants to do, and occasionally move in and out of range to land combinations on Wilder piling up points. I would be surprised if Fury didn’t try to impose his size on Wilder, they are basically the same height but Fury will probably have a good twenty to thirty pounds minimum on Wilder, and if Fury can push Wilder into the ropes, smothering his power by leaning on Wilder, I think he can really wear Wilder down because Wilder’s inside game is considerably worse than Fury’s. While I think Fury will pile up points because he is a far better complete and versatile boxer, I think Wilder will catch him at least once because he is unorthodox and get him in trouble, but Fury will persevere and make it through. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Fury caught Wilder being reckless like he did with Klitschko in round eleven. All things considered, I believe Fury will be in better shape than people think he will be in and Fury will negate Wilder to outbox him by a relatively close but clear decision where both guys get hurt but go the distance.

If Fury wins by any means, he should be considered the best Heavyweight in the world, Wilder is better than anyone Joshua has beat and Fury beat a better version of Klitschko easily. If he wins, he is likely going to have to rematch Wilder because Wilder has a rematch clause. The only scenario I don’t see a rematch happening is if Fury wins every round, negates Wilder entirely and stops him which would be a very shocking series of events. If that happens, I think Wilder will just be built back up versus guys like Breazeale and Ortiz. If Wilder wins it really increases his leverage in the negotiation versus Joshua and he has a claim to be the best Heavyweight in the world. I think there may be a rematch if Wilder wins, I am not sure if there is a two-way rematch clause but it would make the most sense given Eddie Hearn has made it clear he no plans of getting Joshua in the ring with Wilder anytime soon. Like with the scenario of Fury beating Wilder easily, I also don’t think there will be a rematch if Wilder beats Fury easily by knockout. If that happens, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fury retires.