Rocky Fielding vs Saul Alvarez

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Rocky Fielding vs Saul Alvarez
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Date: 
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Location: 
Madison Square Garden, New York, New York, USA
Rounds Scheduled: 
12
Contracted Weight: 
168

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Comments

Champion97's picture

Prediction,

Woah, did not see this coming!

I think this is a big risk for Alvarez, possibly a mistake, for 2 reasons, one is that 3 months is not enough time after the second Golovkin fight, which was damaging, and the other is weight. Alvarez is 5'9, he is not a big middleweight, fought at 154 at the age of 26, and didn't move up because he simply couldn't make that weight anymore, he is stocky, and he has apapted very well to 160 in his last 3 fights, but I think that might be his limit, and I think going to 168 is a bad move for him, I definitely think he hasn't been at 160 for long enough to go to 168, I don't think he is tall enough, naturally big enough to compete at 168 and not be at a very significant size disadvantage.

Fielding is underrated, he got knocked out in one competitive round by Callum Smith, but we've seen what Smith has just done against Groves, Fielding didn't impress against Rebrasse, who I predicted to beat him, but he has done well to beat Ryder, who is also underrated, stop Brophy in one round, and of course, stop Tyron Zeuge. Fielding has been impressive in his last few fights, he is dangerous when he is hurt, he is strong for the weight, is a great finisher, doesn't let you off the hook, and he can do the basics, put shots together very well.

Despite being underrated, despite being good enough to beat Zeuge, it seems unlikely Fielding is a great fighter, and Alvarez is a great fighter, given that Alvarez has wins at a higher level, given that he has been fighting at a level above for years, and they have seemed as occupied as each other, it is hard to argue that Alvarez isn't level above Fielding.

No doubt Fielding has a big size advantage, no doubt 3 months is not enough time for Alvarez coming off the Golovkin rematch, but no doubt Alvarez is much better than a fighter of the lower calibre of Fielding, it just depends exactly how underrated Fielding is, how bad an idea going to 168 is for Alvarez, and how much too soon 3 months is for Alvarez to recover.

I think Fielding has a good shot in this fight, I don't think he'll start well, Alvarez's decreased power will still be enough to stun and hurt Fielding as he gets clumsy, takes a counter, and for boxing brain, just levels, Alvarez will do the better work, will be winning the rounds, but provided Fielding can throw combinations in the early rounds, push Alvarez back, as well as Alvarez working at his own necessary pace, Alvarez will definitely tire, probably after just 4 rounds, and that's when Fielding can come on, take it to him, hit him clean, make Alvarez feel the power of a hard hitting super middleweight, be relentless, drag him into the trenches, set up his shots with the jab, and if Fielding does that, he might win this fight.

I think Fielding's issue might simply be calibre, as he has a tired and overpowered Alvarez on the ropes, maybe the intelligence, ability to slip, counter, from Alvarez, might be too much for Fielding, and Alvarez will know when to attack, Fielding will tire himself at some stage, especially if he misses a lot, and when he takes a breather, that's when Alvarez will let shots go, and he can sit on the ropes for a minute, be purely defensive, move, and although Fielding has good variety, he doesn't have the timing, ability to set up an opponent, that you would need to catch Alvarez clean when he is on the ropes, defending, using his reactions, reflexes, as well as he was in the first Golovkin fight.

This is a tough one to predict, I'm very excited for this one, should be a great fight, I give Alvarez credit for moving up and taking the fight even though I don't like him. I'm struggling to make a prediction.

I'm going to edge towards Alvarez, I think Fielding has a good chance, might just be able to pull this out, but I think Alvarez is too good, he will suffer from the weight disadvantage, coming back too soon, but really, those two factors are what will make it a great fight, because if Alvarez was coming back after 7 months, and Fielding was his size, I think Alvarez would win most if not every round, stop Fielding, Fielding wouldn't give him problems, and that would be an easy prediction for most of us.

I think Alvarez wins an SD, 110-117, 112-115, 114-113, but it will be a great fight, a close fight.